News & Events
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May 11 2016
Only Purple Squirrels Need Apply
With job openings at near-record highs, according to the JOLTS data, some see an extraordinarily tight labor market. More
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May 10 2016
U.S. WLI Monthly Rose
U.S. WLI (monthly data) rose to 133.3, growth rate increased to 4.8%. More
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May 09 2016
Job Growth Downturn Lines Up With GDP Growth Downturn
While economists scratch their heads about the apparent disconnect between GDP growth and job growth, the cyclical reality is that both peaked in early 2015 and remain in cyclical downtrends. More
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May 09 2016
Bloomberg Interview Summary
Stagflation "lite," as slower growth persists. More
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May 06 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up
U.S. WLI edged up to 135.7, growth rate rose to 5.4%. More
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May 06 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 93-month High
The USFIG increased further in April to a 93-month high. More
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May 06 2016
Multiple jobs needed to make ends meet
Multiple jobholders growth much faster than single jobholders. More
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May 04 2016
PCBE
Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?
NABE Conference Slides with Notes More
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Apr 29 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
U.S. WLI ticks up to 135.5, growth rate increases to 4.5%. More
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Apr 28 2016
Recession Fears Still Overblown
Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there's a long way to go before calling a recession. More
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Apr 27 2016
U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'
Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future. More
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Apr 26 2016
Stalling or Falling?
Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters. More
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Apr 22 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rose
U.S. WLI rose to 135.2, growth rate increased to 3.5%. More
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Apr 22 2016
What The Fed Can Learn From Carl Sagan
Unfortunately, the Fed's policy making experts haven't got the goods to back up their claims. More
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Apr 20 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Slips
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI slips to 2.3%. More
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Apr 15 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increases to 134.2, growth rate rises to 2.5%. More
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Apr 15 2016
Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments
Minsky conference slides and audio. More
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Apr 13 2016
Fed Faces Stagflation Lite
With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with "stagflation lite." More
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Apr 08 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up
U.S. WLI ticked up to 133.2, growth rate rose to 1.6%. More
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Apr 07 2016
New Growth Rate Cycle Peak Date Determined for Japan
New Japanese growth rate cycle date. More
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ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
