News & Events
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Sep 30 2016
U.S. WLI Edged Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 133.0, while the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 8.8%. More
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Sep 29 2016
Fed Hold No Surprise
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in September is no surprise, as weak GDP growth underscores the slowing U.S. economy. More
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Sep 27 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Unchanged
The cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 32-month low. More
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Sep 23 2016
U.S. WLI Decreased
U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.9, while the growth rate ticked up to 8.8%. More
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Sep 19 2016
Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index
More detail on ECRI's growth rate cycles, and the global outlook. More
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Sep 16 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased
U.S. WLI increased to 139.6, while the growth rate edged up to 8.7%. More
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Sep 16 2016
Cyclical Update
Growth, inflation and policy challenges. More
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Sep 12 2016
Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession
Recall that in early 2016, when many were afraid of recession, ECRI declared that such fears were premature. More
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Sep 09 2016
U.S. WLI Edges Up
U.S. WLI edges up to 138.9, while the growth rate increases to 8.3%. More
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Sep 07 2016
The Brecession Blunder
Only now, with evidence mounting that such a recession hasn't materialized, is there puzzlement about the "Brecession blunder". More
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Sep 02 2016
Latest Jobs Data in Context
Slowdown continues amid weak global trade. More
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Sep 02 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up
U.S. WLI ticked up to 138.4, while the growth rate remains unchanged at 8.1%. More
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Sep 02 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August
USFIG stayed near July's 97-month high in August. More
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Aug 31 2016
Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline
As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero. More
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Aug 26 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increased to 138.1, while the growth rate ticked down to 8.1%. More
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Aug 19 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Down
U.S. WLI ticked down to 137.8, while the growth rate decreased to 8.4%. More
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Aug 17 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged
Year-over-year growth in the USCI, a broad measure of economic activity, remained at a 30-month low. More
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Aug 12 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
U.S. WLI remains unchanged at 137.6, while the growth rate ticked up to 8.4%. More
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Aug 05 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreases
U.S. WLI decreases to 137.6, while the growth rate edges up to 8.2%. More
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Aug 05 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG at a 97-month high in July. More
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In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
