News & Events
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Jul 27 2016
Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore
ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015. More
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Jul 20 2016
ECRI's Simple Math Goes Global
Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky. More
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Jul 13 2016
Interview: Cyclical Outlook vs. Structural Problems
Just because a U.S. recession isn't right at hand, doesn't mean it's off the table. More
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Jul 08 2016
Discussing Latest Jobs Data
Even with the strong jobs report, we still have a clear slowdown in yoy payroll job growth remains close to May's 27-month low. More
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Jul 08 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Grows in June
The USFIG rose again to an eight-year high in June. More
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Jun 30 2016
Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors
Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the "productivity puzzle." More
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Jun 30 2016
A Sober Economy Can Handle the Brexit Hit
One of the main signs of the health of the global and U.S. economies is its ability to absorb a blow, and shake it off. More
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Jun 29 2016
Weak Business Investment No Surprise, Preceded Brexit
The Fed, counting on investment growth to bolster the economy, has been disappointed, undercutting any "rate hike cycle" plans. More
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Jun 21 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Up
Despite an uptick in coincident data, the year-and-a-half old cyclical downturn in economic growth continues. More
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Jun 17 2016
The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn't
Before Yellen's recent press conference, our research showed that the Fed's next move may well be a rate cut. More
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Jun 14 2016
Economic Cycle and The Fed
Unless a growth rate cycle upturn begins to take shape, its next move may very well end up being a rate cut. More
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Jun 10 2016
Purple Squirrel Update
The difference between the number hired and the number of job openings is not just shrinking, but has plunged by almost minus three-quarters of a million jobs. More
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Jun 09 2016
"It's the economy, stupid!"
The Fed doesn't seem to realize that its rate hike plans are colliding with the economic cycle. More
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Jun 06 2016
More Than One Job to Make Ends Meet
Growth in multiple jobholders much faster than single jobholders. More
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Jun 03 2016
More Wage Inflation Deception
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." More
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Jun 03 2016
Future Inflation Gauge at 94-mo High
Despite slower growth, underlying inflation pressures are on the rise. More
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Jun 02 2016
Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely
Cyclical slowdowns are more widespread globally than at any time in almost 3 years. More
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May 27 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increased to 136.1, growth rate edged up to 6.1%. More
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May 25 2016
Wage Erosion Resumes
Higher inflation eats away at real wage growth. More
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May 23 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Decreased
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI decreased to 1.9%, a 28-month low. More
Testimonial
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
This approach works like a charm.
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As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
