News & Events
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Oct 07 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG rose in September to a 99-month high. More
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Oct 05 2016
Slowest U.S. recovery since WWII?
In terms of GDP growth, this is the slowest expansion on record, but we're in the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history and job growth is higher than during the 2001-07 expansion. More
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Oct 04 2016
Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways
The Fed again runs the risk of falling behind the inflation cycle. More
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Oct 03 2016
Challenge
Published Paper: Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes
Keys to the Productivity Puzzle More
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Sep 29 2016
Fed Hold No Surprise
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in September is no surprise, as weak GDP growth underscores the slowing U.S. economy. More
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Sep 27 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Unchanged
The cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 32-month low. More
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Sep 19 2016
Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index
More detail on ECRI's growth rate cycles, and the global outlook. More
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Sep 16 2016
Cyclical Update
Growth, inflation and policy challenges. More
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Sep 12 2016
Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession
Recall that in early 2016, when many were afraid of recession, ECRI declared that such fears were premature. More
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Sep 07 2016
The Brecession Blunder
Only now, with evidence mounting that such a recession hasn't materialized, is there puzzlement about the "Brecession blunder". More
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Sep 02 2016
Latest Jobs Data in Context
Slowdown continues amid weak global trade. More
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Sep 02 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August
USFIG stayed near July's 97-month high in August. More
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Aug 31 2016
Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline
As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero. More
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Aug 17 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged
Year-over-year growth in the USCI, a broad measure of economic activity, remained at a 30-month low. More
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Aug 05 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG at a 97-month high in July. More
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Jul 27 2016
Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore
ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015. More
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Jul 20 2016
ECRI's Simple Math Goes Global
Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky. More
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Jul 13 2016
Interview: Cyclical Outlook vs. Structural Problems
Just because a U.S. recession isn't right at hand, doesn't mean it's off the table. More
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Jul 08 2016
Discussing Latest Jobs Data
Even with the strong jobs report, we still have a clear slowdown in yoy payroll job growth remains close to May's 27-month low. More
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Jul 08 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Grows in June
The USFIG rose again to an eight-year high in June. More
Upcoming Events
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Dec06
Upcoming Webcast with Dave Interview
Rosenberg Research December 6, 2022
Testimonial
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
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Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
