News & Events
-
Dec 16 2016
Only Retirement-Age Whites Gain Jobs Share
Yellen got her wish, but the prime-working-age E/P ratio has fallen for Whites, Asians & Hispanics since pre-recession highs. More
-
Dec 14 2016
Fed Rate Hike
Cyclical context of Fed's statement More
-
Dec 13 2016
Where Were Trump's Votes? Where the Jobs Weren't
For Whites, Fewer Jobs; for Minorities More. More
-
Dec 02 2016
Multiple Jobs Needed to Make Ends Meet
With wage growth unable to keep pace with inflation, more people need to work multiple lower-paying jobs in order to make ends meet. More
-
Dec 01 2016
Sustained 3 to 4% GDP Growth Is A Huge Stretch
We'd need double the productivity growth of the Reagan years. More
-
Nov 30 2016
A Tale of Two Job Markets
Whites now have fewer jobs than nine years ago, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more. More
-
Nov 17 2016
All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify
The upturn in inflation, which ECRI predicted many months ago, has now become a significant concern. More
-
Nov 15 2016
Inflation Is Going to Rise; Here's How to Protect Yourself
Commodity prices and bond yields are both up since the election of Donald Trump. More
-
Nov 14 2016
2-Year U.S. Downward Growth Mode Won't Turn On A Dime
U.S. economic growth outlook, inflation prospects, and Fed rate hike. More
-
Nov 14 2016
Plunging Predictions
The five-year-ahead GDP growth forecast for the U.S. is approaching that of the Eurozone, just 1½ % per the IMF. More
-
Nov 10 2016
No, A Global Recession Isn't Imminent
Pundits who claim Trump's victory will augur in instant economic disaster are wrong. More
-
Nov 04 2016
MarketPlace
Yes, Wages Are Rising Faster Than In Several Years. No, That Isn't Great.
Lakshman Achuthan's podcast interview on Marketplace. More
-
Nov 04 2016
Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, is critical to the Fed's optimistic view on the economy as it prepares to hike rates in December. More
-
Oct 31 2016
Shunted to the Sidelines
For those without a high school diploma, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics with jobs is back up near record highs, but the majority of non-Hispanic Whites have been jobless for seven long years. More
-
Oct 21 2016
Financial Sense
Interview: Recession Risk, The Fed & Fiscal Policy
Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent. More
-
Oct 20 2016
Fed Risks Lehman Blunder Repeat as US Recession Storm Gathers
We have been seeing a 'growth-rate' cyclical downturn for the last two years. The longer this goes on, the less wiggle room there is. More
-
Oct 19 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down
The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low. More
-
Oct 17 2016
"Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless
It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
-
Oct 17 2016
The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal.
You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things. More
-
Oct 07 2016
Stagflation Lite & Simple Math
Inflation rising as the economy slows, compounded by intractable structural problems. More
Upcoming Events
-
Dec06
Upcoming Webcast with Dave Interview
Rosenberg Research December 6, 2022
Testimonial
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
Your work stands alone in the industry. I wholeheartedly value and endorse your service!
"penetrating analysis"
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
