News & Events
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Oct 19 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down
The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low. More
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Oct 17 2016
"Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless
It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
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Oct 17 2016
The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal.
You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things. More
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Oct 14 2016
U.S. WLI Ticked Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 139.6, while the growth rate decreased to 8.8%. More
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Oct 07 2016
Stagflation Lite & Simple Math
Inflation rising as the economy slows, compounded by intractable structural problems. More
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Oct 07 2016
U.S. WLI Increased
U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.2, while the growth rate ticked down to 8.7%. More
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Oct 07 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG rose in September to a 99-month high. More
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Oct 05 2016
Slowest U.S. recovery since WWII?
In terms of GDP growth, this is the slowest expansion on record, but we're in the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history and job growth is higher than during the 2001-07 expansion. More
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Oct 04 2016
Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways
The Fed again runs the risk of falling behind the inflation cycle. More
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Oct 03 2016
Challenge
Published Paper: Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes
Keys to the Productivity Puzzle More
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Sep 30 2016
U.S. WLI Edged Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 133.0, while the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 8.8%. More
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Sep 29 2016
Fed Hold No Surprise
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in September is no surprise, as weak GDP growth underscores the slowing U.S. economy. More
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Sep 27 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Unchanged
The cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 32-month low. More
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Sep 23 2016
U.S. WLI Decreased
U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.9, while the growth rate ticked up to 8.8%. More
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Sep 19 2016
Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index
More detail on ECRI's growth rate cycles, and the global outlook. More
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Sep 16 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased
U.S. WLI increased to 139.6, while the growth rate edged up to 8.7%. More
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Sep 16 2016
Cyclical Update
Growth, inflation and policy challenges. More
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Sep 12 2016
Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession
Recall that in early 2016, when many were afraid of recession, ECRI declared that such fears were premature. More
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Sep 09 2016
U.S. WLI Edges Up
U.S. WLI edges up to 138.9, while the growth rate increases to 8.3%. More
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Sep 07 2016
The Brecession Blunder
Only now, with evidence mounting that such a recession hasn't materialized, is there puzzlement about the "Brecession blunder". More
Testimonial
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
"penetrating analysis"
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
"eerily accurate"
This approach works like a charm.
