News & Events
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Oct 20 2016
Fed Risks Lehman Blunder Repeat as US Recession Storm Gathers
We have been seeing a 'growth-rate' cyclical downturn for the last two years. The longer this goes on, the less wiggle room there is. More
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Oct 19 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down
The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low. More
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Oct 17 2016
"Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless
It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
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Oct 17 2016
The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal.
You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things. More
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Oct 07 2016
Stagflation Lite & Simple Math
Inflation rising as the economy slows, compounded by intractable structural problems. More
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Oct 07 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG rose in September to a 99-month high. More
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Oct 05 2016
Slowest U.S. recovery since WWII?
In terms of GDP growth, this is the slowest expansion on record, but we're in the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history and job growth is higher than during the 2001-07 expansion. More
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Oct 04 2016
Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways
The Fed again runs the risk of falling behind the inflation cycle. More
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Oct 03 2016
Challenge
Published Paper: Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes
Keys to the Productivity Puzzle More
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Sep 29 2016
Fed Hold No Surprise
The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in September is no surprise, as weak GDP growth underscores the slowing U.S. economy. More
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Sep 27 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Unchanged
The cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 32-month low. More
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Sep 19 2016
Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index
More detail on ECRI's growth rate cycles, and the global outlook. More
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Sep 16 2016
Cyclical Update
Growth, inflation and policy challenges. More
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Sep 12 2016
Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession
Recall that in early 2016, when many were afraid of recession, ECRI declared that such fears were premature. More
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Sep 07 2016
The Brecession Blunder
Only now, with evidence mounting that such a recession hasn't materialized, is there puzzlement about the "Brecession blunder". More
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Sep 02 2016
Latest Jobs Data in Context
Slowdown continues amid weak global trade. More
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Sep 02 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August
USFIG stayed near July's 97-month high in August. More
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Aug 31 2016
Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline
As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero. More
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Aug 17 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged
Year-over-year growth in the USCI, a broad measure of economic activity, remained at a 30-month low. More
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Aug 05 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
USFIG at a 97-month high in July. More
Testimonial
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
