News & Events
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Aug 14 2017
Womenomics Falls Short for Japan
The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More
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Aug 04 2017
Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
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Aug 04 2017
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips
The USFIG dips in July, further distancing itself from last fall's cyclical peak. More
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Aug 01 2017
RBI Considers Leading Indicators
ECRI's leading indicator approach differs from standard econometric models. More
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Jul 31 2017
Phillips Curveball
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
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Jul 19 2017
U.S. Long Leading Index: A Primer
The value of the ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) lies in its ability to spot cyclical turns in the level of economic activity before conventional leading indexes. More
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Jul 18 2017
All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation
Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More
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Jul 07 2017
Reuters: Jobs, Wages & the Fed
The Future Inflation Gauge does not use the Philips curve, or extrapolation. More
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Jul 07 2017
Future Inflation Gauge Edges Up
The U.S. FIG edged up in June after having dropped noticeably in May. More
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Jul 07 2017
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer
Value of U.S. Future Inflation Gauge lies in its ability to predict inflation cycle turns. More
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Jun 26 2017
China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains
The U.S. goods trade deficit has tripled since recession, masking doubling in services trade surplus. More
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Jun 16 2017
New Interview with Real Vision
ECRI's Achuthan spoke with Real Vision TV about the 2017 cyclical outlook, and more. More
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Jun 13 2017
Higher Inflation "Should Be Celebrated"
We ask the experts whether inflation's dormant years are over and how to handle its return. More
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Jun 13 2017
Turning Points: The Long and Short of It
Here are the key turning points underpinning the economic angst that won't go away. More
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Jun 02 2017
Jobs and the Fed
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talking jobs and the Fed on Reuters' Trading at Noon. More
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May 25 2017
ECB's Dilemma
Overheated German economy or debt crisis in Italy. More
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May 24 2017
International Inflation Cycles Sync Up
More synchronized international inflation cycles allow earlier detection of inflation cycle turning points. More
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May 23 2017
New Growth Rate Cycle Date Determined for the U.S.
New U.S. growth rate cycle trough date. More
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May 08 2017
Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood
Addressing the paradox of falling wage growth as the economy accelerates. More
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May 05 2017
Jobs Data in Cyclical Perspective
Healthy jobs report fits with upturn in economic growth flagged by ECRI months ago. More
Testimonial
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
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I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
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