News & Events
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May 24 2017
International Inflation Cycles Sync Up
More synchronized international inflation cycles allow earlier detection of inflation cycle turning points. More
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May 23 2017
New Growth Rate Cycle Date Determined for the U.S.
New U.S. growth rate cycle trough date. More
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May 08 2017
Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood
Addressing the paradox of falling wage growth as the economy accelerates. More
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May 05 2017
Jobs Data in Cyclical Perspective
Healthy jobs report fits with upturn in economic growth flagged by ECRI months ago. More
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May 02 2017
Near-term Pop, Long-term Drop
Pre-election U.S. cycle upturn is holding, but a different cyclical downturn is coming into focus. More
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Apr 19 2017
Levy Economics Institute
"America First" in Perspective
Presentation slides & notes presented at this week's Minsky conference. More
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Apr 10 2017
Incredible Rush to Exceptional India
Markets are catching up to the "Exceptional India" call ECRI made last September. More
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Apr 07 2017
Jobs, Inflation & the Fed
Jobs data in context of cyclical upturn in growth and inflation. More
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Apr 07 2017
Jobless Rates Show Cyclical Revival, Structural Slack
Joblessness hasn't been lower since before the Great Recession. More
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Apr 05 2017
'Ancient History' Cannot Deny Cycle Upturn
People still conflate old news on structural problems with the cyclical outlook. More
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Apr 03 2017
Interview: NAFTA & Jobs
ECRI on MSNBC discussing NAFTA & Jobs. More
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Mar 31 2017
EM: From Ugly Ducklings to Swans
Emerging economies, whose prospects were widely panned, are now the market darlings. More
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Mar 16 2017
New Cycle Dates Determined for Russia and Australia
New Russian and Australian cycle dates. More
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Mar 15 2017
Fed Not Crying Wolf
In early 2017 many expected the Fed to, yet again, over-promise and under-deliver on rate hikes. ECRI warned otherwise. More
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Mar 10 2017
Interview on U.S. Jobs, Fed & ECB
Lakshman Achuthan's Reuters interview on U.S. Jobs, the Fed and ECB. More
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Mar 08 2017
Cyclical Outlook Good, But Sustained 3-4% GDP Growth Unlikely
Interview highlights on near-term outlook, and specific items that need to improve for faster sustained growth. More
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Mar 08 2017
ECB Risks Inflation Surprise
The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge shows that the ECB is falling behind the curve. More
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Mar 06 2017
ECB Mistaking Structural for Cyclical
In sustaining massive amounts of QE, the ECB overlooks the reality that much of the labor market's problems are structural. More
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Feb 24 2017
Why Women Aren't Entering the Workforce Like They Were in '90s
A new study looks at the trend and the implications for Trump's economic agenda. More
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Feb 23 2017
How Reliable Are GDP Consensus Forecasts?
With President Trump in office, economists have been revising their GDP growth forecasts for 2017. More
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