News & Events
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Jun 08 2017
U.S. WLI Monthly Ticks Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index monthly growth rate slips to 4.5%, a 14-month low. More
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Jun 02 2017
Jobs and the Fed
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talking jobs and the Fed on Reuters' Trading at Noon. More
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Jun 02 2017
U.S. WLI Decreases
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate at a 58-week low. More
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May 26 2017
U.S. WLI Edges Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up. More
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May 25 2017
ECB's Dilemma
Overheated German economy or debt crisis in Italy. More
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May 24 2017
International Inflation Cycles Sync Up
More synchronized international inflation cycles allow earlier detection of inflation cycle turning points. More
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May 23 2017
New Growth Rate Cycle Date Determined for the U.S.
New U.S. growth rate cycle trough date. More
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May 19 2017
U.S. WLI Ticks Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at 55-week low. More
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May 17 2017
U.S. WLI Monthly Edges Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index monthly growth rate falls to 5.5%, a one-year low. More
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May 12 2017
U.S. WLI Ticks Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at 54-week low. More
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May 08 2017
Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood
Addressing the paradox of falling wage growth as the economy accelerates. More
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May 05 2017
Jobs Data in Cyclical Perspective
Healthy jobs report fits with upturn in economic growth flagged by ECRI months ago. More
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May 05 2017
U.S. WLI Increases
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at one-year low. More
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May 05 2017
U.S. FIG Remains Elevated
The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge stayed near its highest readings since 2008. More
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May 02 2017
Near-term Pop, Long-term Drop
Pre-election U.S. cycle upturn is holding, but a different cyclical downturn is coming into focus. More
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Apr 28 2017
U.S. WLI Decreases
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down. More
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Apr 21 2017
U.S. WLI Slipped
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreased. More
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Apr 19 2017
Levy Economics Institute
"America First" in Perspective
Presentation slides & notes presented at this week's Minsky conference. More
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Apr 13 2017
U.S. WLI Edged Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate eased. More
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Apr 12 2017
U.S. WLI Monthly Ticked Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index monthly growth rate decreased to 7.8%. More
Testimonial
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
"eerily accurate"
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
