A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

News & Events

Nov 04 2016

U.S. WLI Ticked Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 138.4, while the growth rate decreased to 7.3%. More
Nov 04 2016

U.S. FIG Rises in October

USFIG at 101-month high. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still ratcheting up." More
Nov 04 2016

Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending

Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, is critical to the Fed's optimistic view on the economy as it prepares to hike rates in December. More
Oct 31 2016

Shunted to the Sidelines

For those without a high school diploma, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics with jobs is back up near record highs, but the majority of non-Hispanic Whites have been jobless for seven long years. More
Oct 28 2016

U.S. WLI Decreased

U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.6, while the growth rate edged down to 8.0%. More
Oct 26 2016

U.S. WLI Monthly Increased

U.S. WLI (monthly data) increased to 137.0, growth rate rose to 8.0%. More
Oct 21 2016

Financial Sense

Interview: Recession Risk, The Fed & Fiscal Policy

Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent. More
Oct 21 2016

U.S. WLI Edges Up

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 139.6, while the growth rate ticks down to 8.8%. More
Oct 20 2016

Fed Risks Lehman Blunder Repeat as US Recession Storm Gathers

We have been seeing a 'growth-rate' cyclical downturn for the last two years. The longer this goes on, the less wiggle room there is. More
Oct 19 2016

U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down

The cyclical downturn in economic growth continues with USCI growth at a 33 month low. More
Oct 17 2016

"Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless

It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
Oct 17 2016

The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal.

You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things. More
Oct 14 2016

U.S. WLI Ticked Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 139.6, while the growth rate decreased to 8.8%. More
Oct 07 2016

Stagflation Lite & Simple Math

Inflation rising as the economy slows, compounded by intractable structural problems. More
Oct 07 2016

U.S. WLI Increased

U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.2, while the growth rate ticked down to 8.7%. More
Oct 07 2016

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

USFIG rose in September to a 99-month high. More
Oct 05 2016

Slowest U.S. recovery since WWII?

In terms of GDP growth, this is the slowest expansion on record, but we're in the fourth longest expansion in U.S. history and job growth is higher than during the 2001-07 expansion. More
Oct 04 2016

Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways

The Fed again runs the risk of falling behind the inflation cycle. More
Oct 03 2016

Challenge

Published Paper: Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes

Keys to the Productivity Puzzle More
Sep 30 2016

U.S. WLI Edged Up

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 133.0, while the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 8.8%. More

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Events

Testimonial

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.

- ECRI Client

(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.

- Fortune 100 Company

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.

- Randall Forsyth, Barron's

As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.

- ECRI Client

In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.

- ECRI Client

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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