News & Events
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Nov 22 2017
China Data Disappoints, As ECRI Expected
Markets were disappointed by Chinese data this week, but ECRI's September reporting warned of this very outcome. More
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Nov 15 2017
Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn
ECRI was warning of the inflation downturn when the Fed was celebrating its midyear 'Mission Accomplished' moment. More
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Nov 13 2017
As China Takes Center Stage In The World, It May Be Time To Buy
China's share of global GDP is growing while the United States' share of global purchasing power has been declining. More
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Nov 08 2017
Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off
Is what ails the U.S. someone else's fault? History says no. More
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Nov 06 2017
Nowcasts and Consensus Forecasts
Are they useful? Not at turning points. More
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Nov 03 2017
Wage Inflation Puzzle on Full Display
We're approaching generational lows in unemployment, yet wage inflation is falling. More
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Nov 03 2017
Average Hourly Earnings Falls, But It's Not What It Seems
Why has wage growth fallen? More
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Oct 30 2017
U.S. Economy Grew at a 3% Rate
"Some people may think we are in the seventh or eighth inning of this expansion... there is no fundamental reason an economic expansion cannot last for 20 innings or longer." More
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Oct 19 2017
Profits Growth Slows with Economy
With P/E multiple expansion unlikely, the focus turns to profits growth. More
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Oct 18 2017
RBI's Monetary Policy Minutes
Minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting. More
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Oct 13 2017
Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call
Last February we declared the global outlook to be the brightest since 2010. More
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Oct 06 2017
Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit
Economic growth is about as good as it gets, and we're on the cusp of a fresh downturn. More
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Sep 20 2017
Cyclical Forces Pressuring the Fed
ECRI's Achuthan speaks with CNBC about how monetary policy is impacted by cycles in inflation and growth. More
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Sep 08 2017
Q&A On Waning Economic Growth
U.S. economic growth is now "about as good as it gets." More
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Sep 08 2017
Jan '17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided
Last January, ECRI warned that cyclical forces would blindside those betting on the end of the 35-year bond bull market. More
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Sep 01 2017
Interview: Jobs, the Fed & Cyclical Developments
Economic growth, which has been ramping up since mid-2016, is now about as good as it gets. More
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Sep 01 2017
U.S. FIG Ticks Up
The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge is still well below last fall's cyclical peak. More
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Aug 25 2017
Finding the Root Cause of Recessions
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
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Aug 24 2017
Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction
ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More
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Aug 17 2017
Slow Growth Worries MPC's External Members
Growth in the Indian Leading Index is falling, as is Indian Leading Exports Index growth. More
Testimonial
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
