News & Events
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Sep 08 2017
Q&A On Waning Economic Growth
U.S. economic growth is now "about as good as it gets." More
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Sep 08 2017
Jan '17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided
Last January, ECRI warned that cyclical forces would blindside those betting on the end of the 35-year bond bull market. More
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Sep 01 2017
Interview: Jobs, the Fed & Cyclical Developments
Economic growth, which has been ramping up since mid-2016, is now about as good as it gets. More
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Aug 25 2017
Finding the Root Cause of Recessions
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
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Aug 24 2017
Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction
ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More
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Aug 17 2017
Slow Growth Worries MPC's External Members
Growth in the Indian Leading Index is falling, as is Indian Leading Exports Index growth. More
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Aug 14 2017
Womenomics Falls Short for Japan
The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More
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Aug 04 2017
Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
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Aug 01 2017
RBI Considers Leading Indicators
ECRI's leading indicator approach differs from standard econometric models. More
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Jul 31 2017
Phillips Curveball
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
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Jul 19 2017
U.S. Long Leading Index: A Primer
The value of the ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) lies in its ability to spot cyclical turns in the level of economic activity before conventional leading indexes. More
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Jul 18 2017
All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation
Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More
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Jul 07 2017
Reuters: Jobs, Wages & the Fed
The Future Inflation Gauge does not use the Philips curve, or extrapolation. More
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Jul 07 2017
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer
Value of U.S. Future Inflation Gauge lies in its ability to predict inflation cycle turns. More
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Jun 26 2017
China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains
The U.S. goods trade deficit has tripled since recession, masking doubling in services trade surplus. More
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Jun 16 2017
New Interview with Real Vision
ECRI's Achuthan spoke with Real Vision TV about the 2017 cyclical outlook, and more. More
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Jun 13 2017
Higher Inflation "Should Be Celebrated"
We ask the experts whether inflation's dormant years are over and how to handle its return. More
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Jun 13 2017
Turning Points: The Long and Short of It
Here are the key turning points underpinning the economic angst that won't go away. More
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Jun 02 2017
Jobs and the Fed
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talking jobs and the Fed on Reuters' Trading at Noon. More
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May 25 2017
ECB's Dilemma
Overheated German economy or debt crisis in Italy. More
Testimonial
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
"penetrating analysis"
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
