News & Events
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Jan 25 2018
Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown
Everyone's too optimistic about 2018. More
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Jan 22 2018
Cyclical Outlook Diverges from Headlines
Our research shows most are looking the wrong way on economic growth. More
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Jan 05 2018
Jobs Report and 2018 Slowdown
Reuters interview discussing the Dec. jobs report, as well as ECRI's view on cycles in economic growth, including a U.S. slowdown in 2018. More
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Dec 13 2017
Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead
The bond market, like ECRI's leading indexes, sees an impending slowdown. More
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Dec 08 2017
Jobs, Bonds and the Economy
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters' "Trading at Noon" about the jobs report. More
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Dec 08 2017
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up. More
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Dec 07 2017
Tax Cuts May Hit Economy as it Slows
ECRI's forward-looking indicators point to "a slowdown that most don't see coming." More
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Nov 22 2017
China Data Disappoints, As ECRI Expected
Markets were disappointed by Chinese data this week, but ECRI's September reporting warned of this very outcome. More
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Nov 15 2017
Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn
ECRI was warning of the inflation downturn when the Fed was celebrating its midyear 'Mission Accomplished' moment. More
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Nov 13 2017
As China Takes Center Stage In The World, It May Be Time To Buy
China's share of global GDP is growing while the United States' share of global purchasing power has been declining. More
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Nov 08 2017
Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off
Is what ails the U.S. someone else's fault? History says no. More
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Nov 06 2017
Nowcasts and Consensus Forecasts
Are they useful? Not at turning points. More
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Nov 03 2017
Wage Inflation Puzzle on Full Display
We're approaching generational lows in unemployment, yet wage inflation is falling. More
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Nov 03 2017
Average Hourly Earnings Falls, But It's Not What It Seems
Why has wage growth fallen? More
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Oct 30 2017
U.S. Economy Grew at a 3% Rate
"Some people may think we are in the seventh or eighth inning of this expansion... there is no fundamental reason an economic expansion cannot last for 20 innings or longer." More
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Oct 19 2017
Profits Growth Slows with Economy
With P/E multiple expansion unlikely, the focus turns to profits growth. More
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Oct 18 2017
RBI's Monetary Policy Minutes
Minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting. More
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Oct 13 2017
Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call
Last February we declared the global outlook to be the brightest since 2010. More
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Oct 06 2017
Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit
Economic growth is about as good as it gets, and we're on the cusp of a fresh downturn. More
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Sep 20 2017
Cyclical Forces Pressuring the Fed
ECRI's Achuthan speaks with CNBC about how monetary policy is impacted by cycles in inflation and growth. More
Testimonial
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
This approach works like a charm.
