News & Events
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May 01 2018
How to Avoid Being Blindsided By the Business Cycle
Highlights from RealVision discussion on the business cycle and the risk of a global recession. More
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Apr 26 2018
Interview: Deglobalization and the Fed
ECRI’s Achuthan on a structural retreat of globalization, trade and the Fed. More
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Apr 25 2018
Analytical Approach and the Current Slowdown
ECRI's analytical approach and how today it shows the fourth slowdown in U.S. growth since the financial crisis. More
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Apr 20 2018
Levy Economics Institute
Are We Really "Normalizing?"
The danger of confusing cyclical with structural: see slide deck with notes. More
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Apr 09 2018
The Dog that Didn't Bark
Unemployment is flat, yet it should be falling if the economy is as strong as most assume. More
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Mar 09 2018
Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment
Groupthink on synchronized global growth upturn in danger of being blindsided by cyclical downturn getting underway. More
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Mar 09 2018
Jobless Rate Consistent with Slowdown
The unemployment rate has been drifting up, conforming to the economic slowdown that ECRI flagged earlier. More
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Mar 09 2018
Interview on Jobs & Global Growth
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters about the jobs report and slowing international GDP growth. More
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Mar 06 2018
Trade Sanctions and Global Slowdown
ECRI's Achuthan on the slow recognition of the global slowdown, trade sanctions and monetary policy. More
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Feb 16 2018
Q/A on Economic Slowdown Taking Hold
The implications of rising rates are more worrisome than realized by most people who are missing ECRI's 2018 slowdown call. More
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Feb 13 2018
Bond quality spread confirming looming economic slowdown
ECRI sees 2018 economic slowdown on tap, and bond market quality spreads agree. More
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Feb 09 2018
Financial Sense
Extended Interview on ECRI's Cyclical Outlook
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Financial Sense about the outlook for growth, inflation, wages, and more. More
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Feb 02 2018
Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown
January wage growth jumped for an unwelcome reason: growth in hours fell faster than pay growth. More
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Jan 25 2018
Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown
Everyone's too optimistic about 2018. More
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Jan 22 2018
Cyclical Outlook Diverges from Headlines
Our research shows most are looking the wrong way on economic growth. More
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Jan 05 2018
Jobs Report and 2018 Slowdown
Reuters interview discussing the Dec. jobs report, as well as ECRI's view on cycles in economic growth, including a U.S. slowdown in 2018. More
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Dec 13 2017
Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead
The bond market, like ECRI's leading indexes, sees an impending slowdown. More
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Dec 08 2017
Jobs, Bonds and the Economy
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters' "Trading at Noon" about the jobs report. More
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Dec 08 2017
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up. More
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Dec 07 2017
Tax Cuts May Hit Economy as it Slows
ECRI's forward-looking indicators point to "a slowdown that most don't see coming." More
Testimonial
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
