News & Events
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May 22 2018
A Stealth Slowdown
The rise in inflation and interest rates is masking an economic slowdown. More
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May 04 2018
Jobs Report: Good & Bad News
Reuters talks with ECRI's Achuthan about slowing jobs growth. More
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May 01 2018
How to Avoid Being Blindsided By the Business Cycle
Highlights from RealVision discussion on the business cycle and the risk of a global recession. More
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Apr 26 2018
Interview: Deglobalization and the Fed
ECRI’s Achuthan on a structural retreat of globalization, trade and the Fed. More
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Apr 25 2018
Analytical Approach and the Current Slowdown
ECRI's analytical approach and how today it shows the fourth slowdown in U.S. growth since the financial crisis. More
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Apr 20 2018
Levy Economics Institute
Are We Really "Normalizing?"
The danger of confusing cyclical with structural: see slide deck with notes. More
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Apr 20 2018
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edges down in latest update. More
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Apr 09 2018
The Dog that Didn't Bark
Unemployment is flat, yet it should be falling if the economy is as strong as most assume. More
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Mar 09 2018
Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment
Groupthink on synchronized global growth upturn in danger of being blindsided by cyclical downturn getting underway. More
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Mar 09 2018
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down in latest update. More
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Mar 09 2018
Jobless Rate Consistent with Slowdown
The unemployment rate has been drifting up, conforming to the economic slowdown that ECRI flagged earlier. More
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Mar 09 2018
Interview on Jobs & Global Growth
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters about the jobs report and slowing international GDP growth. More
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Mar 06 2018
Trade Sanctions and Global Slowdown
ECRI's Achuthan on the slow recognition of the global slowdown, trade sanctions and monetary policy. More
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Mar 02 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips in latest update. More
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Feb 16 2018
Q/A on Economic Slowdown Taking Hold
The implications of rising rates are more worrisome than realized by most people who are missing ECRI's 2018 slowdown call. More
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Feb 13 2018
Bond quality spread confirming looming economic slowdown
ECRI sees 2018 economic slowdown on tap, and bond market quality spreads agree. More
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Feb 09 2018
Financial Sense
Extended Interview on ECRI's Cyclical Outlook
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Financial Sense about the outlook for growth, inflation, wages, and more. More
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Feb 09 2018
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises in latest update. More
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Feb 02 2018
Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown
January wage growth jumped for an unwelcome reason: growth in hours fell faster than pay growth. More
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Jan 25 2018
Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown
Everyone's too optimistic about 2018. More
Testimonial
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
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ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
