A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

News & Events

Dec 16 2016

U.S. WLI Ticked Up

U.S. Weekly Leading Index to a 496-week high, while the growth rate a 344-week high. More
Dec 14 2016

Fed Rate Hike

Cyclical context of Fed's statement More
Dec 13 2016

Where Were Trump's Votes? Where the Jobs Weren't

For Whites, Fewer Jobs; for Minorities More. More
Dec 12 2016

U.S. WLI Monthly Rose

U.S. WLI level at 138.9, growth rate increased to 8.5%. More
Dec 09 2016

U.S. WLI Increased

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rose to 9.7%, highest since May 7, 2010. More
Dec 02 2016

U.S. FIG Rises Again

102-month high shows that underlying inflation pressures are still mounting. More
Dec 02 2016

U.S. WLI Edged Up

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 142.1, while the growth rate increased to 8.3%. More
Dec 02 2016

Multiple Jobs Needed to Make Ends Meet

With wage growth unable to keep pace with inflation, more people need to work multiple lower-paying jobs in order to make ends meet. More
Dec 01 2016

Sustained 3 to 4% GDP Growth Is A Huge Stretch

We'd need double the productivity growth of the Reagan years. More
Nov 30 2016

A Tale of Two Job Markets

Whites now have fewer jobs than nine years ago, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more. More
Nov 23 2016

U.S. WLI Increases

U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 141.6, while the growth rate rises to 7.1%. More
Nov 18 2016

U.S. WLI Increased

U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.2, while the growth rate ticked down to 6.2%. More
Nov 17 2016

All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify

The upturn in inflation, which ECRI predicted many months ago, has now become a significant concern. More
Nov 15 2016

Inflation Is Going to Rise; Here's How to Protect Yourself

Commodity prices and bond yields are both up since the election of Donald Trump. More
Nov 14 2016

2-Year U.S. Downward Growth Mode Won't Turn On A Dime

U.S. economic growth outlook, inflation prospects, and Fed rate hike. More
Nov 14 2016

Plunging Predictions

The five-year-ahead GDP growth forecast for the U.S. is approaching that of the Eurozone, just 1½ % per the IMF. More
Nov 11 2016

U.S. WLI Edged Up

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 138.6, while the growth rate decreased to 6.7%. More
Nov 10 2016

No, A Global Recession Isn't Imminent

Pundits who claim Trump's victory will augur in instant economic disaster are wrong. More
Nov 10 2016

U.S. WLI Monthly Ticked Down

U.S. WLI (monthly data) ticked down to 137.2, growth rate decreased to 7.2%. More
Nov 04 2016

MarketPlace

Yes, Wages Are Rising Faster Than In Several Years. No, That Isn't Great.

Lakshman Achuthan's podcast interview on Marketplace. More

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Testimonial

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.

- ECRI Client

This approach works like a charm.

- Forbes Magazine

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.

- Harvard Business Review

In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.

- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.

- ECRI Client

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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MarketPlace

Testimonial

Our Track Record