News & Events
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Oct 27 2017
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
U.S. WLI growth edges up. More
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Oct 20 2017
Weekly Leading Index Rises
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth increases. More
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Oct 19 2017
Profits Growth Slows with Economy
With P/E multiple expansion unlikely, the focus turns to profits growth. More
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Oct 18 2017
RBI's Monetary Policy Minutes
Minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting. More
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Oct 13 2017
Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call
Last February we declared the global outlook to be the brightest since 2010. More
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Oct 13 2017
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth ticks up. More
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Oct 06 2017
Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up. More
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Oct 06 2017
Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit
Economic growth is about as good as it gets, and we're on the cusp of a fresh downturn. More
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Sep 29 2017
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to a 79-week low. More
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Sep 22 2017
Weekly Leading Index Growth at Zero
U.S. Weekly Leading Index was unchanged, but the growth rate fell to a 78-week low. More
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Sep 20 2017
Cyclical Forces Pressuring the Fed
ECRI's Achuthan speaks with CNBC about how monetary policy is impacted by cycles in inflation and growth. More
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Sep 15 2017
Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. Weekly Leading Index rises, but growth rate slips to 77-week low. More
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Sep 08 2017
Q&A On Waning Economic Growth
U.S. economic growth is now "about as good as it gets." More
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Sep 08 2017
Weekly Leading Index Slips Again
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls to 75-week low. More
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Sep 08 2017
Jan '17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided
Last January, ECRI warned that cyclical forces would blindside those betting on the end of the 35-year bond bull market. More
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Sep 01 2017
Interview: Jobs, the Fed & Cyclical Developments
Economic growth, which has been ramping up since mid-2016, is now about as good as it gets. More
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Sep 01 2017
U.S. FIG Ticks Up
The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge is still well below last fall's cyclical peak. More
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Sep 01 2017
Weekly Leading Index Slips
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls to 73-week low. More
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Aug 25 2017
Finding the Root Cause of Recessions
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
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Aug 25 2017
Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to 72-week low. More
Testimonial
This approach works like a charm.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
