A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

News & Events

Jun 23 2017

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to a 62-week low. More
Jun 16 2017

New Interview with Real Vision

ECRI's Achuthan spoke with Real Vision TV about the 2017 cyclical outlook, and more. More
Jun 16 2017

U.S. WLI Edges Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to a 60-week low. More
Jun 13 2017

Higher Inflation "Should Be Celebrated"

We ask the experts whether inflation's dormant years are over and how to handle its return. More
Jun 13 2017

Turning Points: The Long and Short of It

Here are the key turning points underpinning the economic angst that won't go away. More
Jun 09 2017

U.S. WLI Increases

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate at a 59-week low. More
Jun 08 2017

U.S. WLI Monthly Ticks Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index monthly growth rate slips to 4.5%, a 14-month low. More
Jun 02 2017

Jobs and the Fed

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talking jobs and the Fed on Reuters' Trading at Noon. More
Jun 02 2017

U.S. WLI Decreases

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate at a 58-week low. More
May 26 2017

U.S. WLI Edges Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up. More
May 25 2017

ECB's Dilemma

Overheated German economy or debt crisis in Italy. More
May 24 2017

International Inflation Cycles Sync Up

More synchronized international inflation cycles allow earlier detection of inflation cycle turning points. More
May 23 2017

New Growth Rate Cycle Date Determined for the U.S.

New U.S. growth rate cycle trough date. More
May 19 2017

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at 55-week low. More
May 17 2017

U.S. WLI Monthly Edges Down

U.S. Weekly Leading Index monthly growth rate falls to 5.5%, a one-year low. More
May 12 2017

U.S. WLI Ticks Up

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at 54-week low. More
May 08 2017

Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood

Addressing the paradox of falling wage growth as the economy accelerates. More
May 05 2017

Jobs Data in Cyclical Perspective

Healthy jobs report fits with upturn in economic growth flagged by ECRI months ago. More
May 05 2017

U.S. WLI Increases

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at one-year low. More
May 05 2017

U.S. FIG Remains Elevated

The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge stayed near its highest readings since 2008. More

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News
Events

Testimonial

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.

- ECRI Client

For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.

- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.

- ECRI Client

Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.

- Alan Abelson, Barron's

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005

- The Economist

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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