Cycles, the Fed & Recession Risk

ECRI's Achuthan discusses our cycle work, and how the reality of and how the Fed and recession risk. More

Turning Points in Global Growth & Market Risk

Global economic growth continues to slow, as ECRI correctly called a year ago, but no recession imminent. More

Updating Stock Price Corrections Call

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares an update on our cyclical risk of stock price corrections call. More

Interview: The Fed, Markets, Growth & Inflation

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discussed our outlook for growth and inflation along with a discussion on markets and the Fed’s December blink. More

As in 2016, the Fed’s rate hike plans have been on a collision course with the economic cycle. ECRI saw it coming. More

ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop

ECRI’s industrial price index is a critical tool for monitoring the risk of cycle turns in commodity price inflation. More

2018 Cycle Calls

ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next. More

"Eyes Wide Open," but the Fed is Just Staring at the Stars

ECRI joins CNBC to discuss the ongoing cyclical downturns in economic growth and inflation, and future Fed rate hikes. More

A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market

5 bear markets since World War II have occurred when economic growth was positive, but decelerating. More

Growth in the Indian Leading Index, a predictor of the direction of Indian economic growth maintained by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), New York, has risen lately. More

Credit Markets Signal Recession in Early 2019

“Fed policy is too tight given that inflation peaked in July. They overstayed their welcome.” More

Cycle Turns & Equity Corrections

Our earlier warning of elevated stock price correction risks will stay in place until ECRI’s leading indexes see the slowdown ending. More

What the Fed is Getting Wrong

The Fed and many market participants don’t really understand that inflation is cyclical. More

Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck

Oblivious of the ongoing inflation cycle downturn, the Fed is still navigating “by the stars.” More

Inflation is Cyclical

ECRI joins CNBC to discuss how most don’t understand that inflation is cyclical, and how that impacts the debate around Fed rate hike expectations. More

ECRI's Achuthan discusses the ongoing economic slowdown and inflation cycle downturn that the consensus is now catching up to. More

Falling Growth in Hours Worked

The slowdown ECRI flagged in the spring is coming into focus. More

Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide

As usual, the recent collapse in oil prices followed a cyclical downturn in industrial commodity price inflation. More

Construction Crumbling

A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth. More

Interview Updating Market Correction Call

The cyclical risk of stock market corrections remains elevated as U.S. economic growth continues to slow. More