News & Events
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Sep 01 2017
Weekly Leading Index Slips
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls to 73-week low. More
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Aug 25 2017
Finding the Root Cause of Recessions
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
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Aug 25 2017
Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to 72-week low. More
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Aug 24 2017
Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction
ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More
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Aug 18 2017
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to 2.5%. More
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Aug 17 2017
Slow Growth Worries MPC's External Members
Growth in the Indian Leading Index is falling, as is Indian Leading Exports Index growth. More
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Aug 14 2017
Womenomics Falls Short for Japan
The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More
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Aug 11 2017
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks down to 2.7%. More
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Aug 08 2017
Weekly Leading Index Points to Slowing
Monthly data for ECRI's U.S. WLI shows it rose, while its growth rate ticked down to a 16-month low. More
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Aug 04 2017
Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
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Aug 04 2017
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate virtually unchanged at 2.8%. More
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Aug 04 2017
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips
The USFIG dips in July, further distancing itself from last fall's cyclical peak. More
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Aug 01 2017
RBI Considers Leading Indicators
ECRI's leading indicator approach differs from standard econometric models. More
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Jul 31 2017
Phillips Curveball
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
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Jul 28 2017
Weekly Leading Index Slips
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to 2.8%. More
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Jul 21 2017
Weekly Leading Index Rises
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to 2.6%. More
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Jul 19 2017
U.S. Long Leading Index: A Primer
The value of the ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) lies in its ability to spot cyclical turns in the level of economic activity before conventional leading indexes. More
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Jul 18 2017
All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation
Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More
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Jul 14 2017
Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
The U.S. WLI growth rate ticked down to 2.4, a 66-week low. More
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Jul 11 2017
Monthly U.S. WLI Falls
Monthly data for ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index shows its growth rate falling to 2.9%, a 15-month low. More
Testimonial
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
