News & Events
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Jan 02 2019
ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop
ECRI’s industrial price index is a critical tool for monitoring the risk of cycle turns in commodity price inflation. More
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Dec 31 2018
2018 Cycle Calls
ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next. More
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Dec 21 2018
"Eyes Wide Open," but the Fed is Just Staring at the Stars
ECRI joins CNBC to discuss the ongoing cyclical downturns in economic growth and inflation, and future Fed rate hikes. More
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Dec 20 2018
A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market
5 bear markets since World War II have occurred when economic growth was positive, but decelerating. More
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Dec 19 2018
RBI’s MPC Minutes and ECRI
Growth in the Indian Leading Index, a predictor of the direction of Indian economic growth maintained by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), New York, has risen lately. More
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Dec 18 2018
The Telegraph
Credit Markets Signal Recession in Early 2019
“Fed policy is too tight given that inflation peaked in July. They overstayed their welcome.” More
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Dec 17 2018
Cycle Turns & Equity Corrections
Our earlier warning of elevated stock price correction risks will stay in place until ECRI’s leading indexes see the slowdown ending. More
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Dec 13 2018
What the Fed is Getting Wrong
The Fed and many market participants don’t really understand that inflation is cyclical. More
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Dec 13 2018
Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck
Oblivious of the ongoing inflation cycle downturn, the Fed is still navigating “by the stars.” More
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Dec 12 2018
Inflation is Cyclical
ECRI joins CNBC to discuss how most don’t understand that inflation is cyclical, and how that impacts the debate around Fed rate hike expectations. More
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Dec 07 2018
Global Slowdown,Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink
ECRI's Achuthan discusses the ongoing economic slowdown and inflation cycle downturn that the consensus is now catching up to. More
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Dec 07 2018
Falling Growth in Hours Worked
The slowdown ECRI flagged in the spring is coming into focus. More
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Nov 30 2018
Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide
As usual, the recent collapse in oil prices followed a cyclical downturn in industrial commodity price inflation. More
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Nov 12 2018
Construction Crumbling
A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth. More
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Nov 08 2018
Interview Updating Market Correction Call
The cyclical risk of stock market corrections remains elevated as U.S. economic growth continues to slow. More
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Nov 07 2018
Markets Must Decide Which History to Believe
Industrial commodities send up a red flag. More
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Nov 01 2018
Eurozone: Growth Downturn, Inflation Upturn No Surprise
By mid-summer ECRI was forecasting a slowdown in Eurozone growth, just the opposite of ECB expectations. That forecast is now a fact. More
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Oct 27 2018
Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed
“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.” More
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Oct 26 2018
Debt Alarm Ringing
The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year. More
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Oct 25 2018
Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?
If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More
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Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
