A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



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A Tale of Two Job Markets

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Whites now have fewer jobs than nine years ago, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more. More


Plunging Predictions

ECRI November 14, 2016

The five-year-ahead GDP growth forecast for the U.S. is approaching that of the Eurozone, just 1½ % per the IMF. More


2-Year U.S. Downward Growth Mode Won't Turn On A Dime

Seeking Alpha November 14, 2016

U.S. economic growth outlook, inflation prospects, and Fed rate hike. More


Published Paper: Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes

Challenge October 3, 2016

Keys to the Productivity Puzzle More


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