News & Events
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Jun 04 2020
A Recovery Call that is Still Contrarian
History repeats itself. As ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index points to recovery, the Conference Board’s LEI and the OECD’s CLI keep falling. More
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Jun 04 2020
Two Key Recovery Scenarios and Markets
Interview on recession end, markets and the 2001-03 vs. 2009-10 recovery scenarios. More
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May 29 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -25.1%. More
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May 27 2020
The Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Are Telling Different Stories
Stocks have rebounded off March lows, while sentiment is near the lowest level in nearly a decade. More
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May 22 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -28.8%. More
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May 14 2020
Recession, Recovery, Demand Destruction and Cyclical Risks
Interview on recession, recovery, demand destruction, cyclical risks and what happens next. More
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May 14 2020
Cyclical Risks and Contrarian Calls (Radio Interview)
Discussing the outlook, cyclical risks and contrarian calls. More
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May 11 2020
The Business Cycle Basics of this Recession
Understanding the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn. More
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May 08 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -35.9%. More
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May 08 2020
Podcast: The Recession in Context, and the Coming Recovery
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares what cycle research insights tell us about the covid-19 recession, and what’s likely to come next. More
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May 08 2020
Fastest Job Loss Ever
Eventually, the hemorrhaging of jobs will be stanched, and employment will start rising. But even that would be far from enough for things to start feeling better. More
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May 01 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to -38.8%. More
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Apr 24 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to -41.9%. More
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Apr 23 2020
The Three D’s and High-Frequency Leading Indicators
We measure recessions with the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. Here’s what we are watching for signs of recovery. More
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Apr 22 2020
Interview: Three D's and High-Frequency Data
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. More
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Apr 14 2020
Radio Interview on Recession (in German)
A discussion on recession, recovery and long-term impacts of the pandemic. More
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Apr 09 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate drops to a record low of -37.2%. More
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Apr 03 2020
Weekly Leading Index Drops
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -26.9%. More
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Mar 27 2020
Weekly Leading Index Worst Since Great Recession
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -15.5%. More
Testimonial
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
