News & Events
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Jun 27 2022
Podcast: What The Business Cycle Is Telling Us About A Recession
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares a public update. More
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Jun 10 2022
Interview: U.S. Inflation, The Fed and Recession Risk
Watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Yahoo Finance Live show. More
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Jun 01 2022
Input to a Decision-Making Process
A key reason for ECRI as an input to a decision-making process is evident by reviewing the periods when we diverged from the consensus in real-time. More
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May 26 2022
Opinion: It's Time To Prepare For A Recession
The economy is close to entering a recession, perhaps as soon as this year. To avoid taking too much of a financial hit, Americans will need to prepare. More
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May 05 2022
Translating Cycle Research Into Actionable Insights
U.S. economic growth has a major impact on investment strategy and business decisions. More
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Mar 14 2022
Podcast: U.S. Economic Growth, Fed Policy & Inflation Cycle
Public outlook updates on U.S. economic growth, Fed policy, and insight on our inflation cycle upturn call. More
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Feb 08 2022
From Gung-Ho to the “R–Word”
ECRI’s process is designed to place decision-makers ahead of the curves in inflation and economic growth, regardless of the salient narrative dominating the headlines. More
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Jan 06 2022
Interview on Inflation, The Fed & Recession Risks
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the inflation cycle, the Fed and recession risks. More
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Dec 18 2021
Fed Risks Policy Mistake
Either the Fed pivots yet again to turn more dovish next year, or it stays the course and something breaks – meaning serious recession risk. More
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Dec 10 2021
Inflation and Consumer Spending Update
Watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Yahoo Finance discussing inflation and consumer spending. More
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Dec 03 2021
Jobs Growth Trending Down
Jobs growth continues its clear downtrend. More
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Dec 02 2021
Growth Slowdowns and Markets
Slowdowns in economic growth see a flattening in the Dow and Russell 2000 punctuated by sharp spikes down. More
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Nov 24 2021
Checking In on Inflation
One of the most interesting things about cycles is that they turn, always. More
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Nov 18 2021
Consumer Spending Cools Off
In sharp contrast to the prevailing optimism, ECRI analysis shows consumer spending is in a cyclical slowdown that will weigh on holiday sales. More
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Nov 17 2021
Contrarian Call Suggests Consumers Are In Trouble This Holiday Season
“There’s still this narrative that the rebound is there,” the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. More
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Nov 09 2021
Checking In on China
ECRI's Achuthan shares thoughts on recent events in Chinese growth and inflation. More
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Oct 19 2021
Proactive Decision Making
ECRI’s framework for monitoring economic cycles gives us much greater foresight and unwavering conviction, without being jerked around by shifting narratives. More
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Oct 08 2021
Job Growth Eases
Job growth has eased in line with our earlier call. More
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Sep 17 2021
Downturn In The Global Industrial Economy
A lot of people are excited about the runup in commodities. We’re saying directionally you got to look the other way. More
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Sep 17 2021
Cooling Commodity Currencies
Watch Lakshman Achuthan's discussion on CNBC Trading Nation on global industrial slowdown call and industrial commodity price inflation. More
Testimonial
"penetrating analysis"
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
"eerily accurate"
