News & Events
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Aug 07 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to -5.3%. More
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Aug 03 2020
PMIs Up In Line with Earlier Forecast
Manufacturing PMIs again confirm our May upturn call. More
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Jul 31 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to -6.5%. More
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Jul 24 2020
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -7.0%. More
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Jul 17 2020
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to -7.2%. More
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Jul 15 2020
Recovery from Recession and Risk of Fresh Slowdown
Interview on recession, recovery and the risk of a fresh slowdown. More
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Jul 15 2020
Are We in the Beginning of A New Downturn? Well...
It may be two steps forward, one step back along the way. More
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Jul 10 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to -7.7%. More
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Jul 06 2020
Cyclical Fundamentals to the Upside
"This weekly leading index objectively in an apolitical way tells us what do all these positives and negatives. So far, so good." More
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Jul 02 2020
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases further to -8.7%. More
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Jun 24 2020
Biggest Risk for Markets
Interview on recession severity and the biggest risk for markets. More
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Jun 24 2020
Interview: Short Recession Call Revisited
A review of ECRI’s April 2020 public short recession call, and updated questions and answers. More
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Jun 24 2020
Yes, We're in a Recession. But the Market's Rally Still Makes Perfect Sense
With the economy officially in the deepest recession in living memory, the stock market's ongoing rally can seem baffling. More
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Jun 19 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases further to -14.9%. More
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Jun 13 2020
Why a Ruinous Recession and Soaring Stocks Make Perfect Sense
A rising equity market historically leads an upturn in the business cycle. More
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Jun 12 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -18.5%. More
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Jun 09 2020
Recession Started in Feb., But What's Next
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the dating of recession, and the outlook for a near-term recovery. More
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Jun 09 2020
Recession and (Yes) Recovery
Interview on markets and two recovery scenarios. More
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Jun 05 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases further to -22.1%. More
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Jun 05 2020
Employment Dives Followed by Solid Uptick
The question is when that virtuous cycle will begin to gain traction. This is where good leading indexes – not politics, epidemiology, or therapeutics – are critical to watch. More
Testimonial
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
