News & Events
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May 29 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -25.1%. More
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May 27 2020
The Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Are Telling Different Stories
Stocks have rebounded off March lows, while sentiment is near the lowest level in nearly a decade. More
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May 22 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -28.8%. More
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May 14 2020
Recession, Recovery, Demand Destruction and Cyclical Risks
Interview on recession, recovery, demand destruction, cyclical risks and what happens next. More
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May 14 2020
Cyclical Risks and Contrarian Calls (Radio Interview)
Discussing the outlook, cyclical risks and contrarian calls. More
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May 11 2020
The Business Cycle Basics of this Recession
Understanding the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn. More
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May 08 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -35.9%. More
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May 08 2020
Podcast: The Recession in Context, and the Coming Recovery
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares what cycle research insights tell us about the covid-19 recession, and what’s likely to come next. More
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May 08 2020
Fastest Job Loss Ever
Eventually, the hemorrhaging of jobs will be stanched, and employment will start rising. But even that would be far from enough for things to start feeling better. More
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May 01 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to -38.8%. More
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Apr 24 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to -41.9%. More
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Apr 23 2020
The Three D’s and High-Frequency Leading Indicators
We measure recessions with the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. Here’s what we are watching for signs of recovery. More
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Apr 14 2020
Radio Interview on Recession (in German)
A discussion on recession, recovery and long-term impacts of the pandemic. More
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Apr 09 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate drops to a record low of -37.2%. More
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Apr 03 2020
Weekly Leading Index Drops
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -26.9%. More
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Mar 27 2020
Weekly Leading Index Worst Since Great Recession
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -15.5%. More
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Mar 20 2020
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -4.4%. More
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Mar 17 2020
Fed's Latest Rate Cut Was a Useless and Desperate Move
Cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand. More
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Mar 13 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to -0.5%. More
Testimonial
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
