News & Events
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Oct 11 2019
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 1.1%. More
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Oct 09 2019
Consumer Spending Growth Slowing
The downturn in consumer spending growth fits with the jobs growth slowdown. More
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Oct 04 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 0.8%. More
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Oct 02 2019
ISM Mfg, Jobs & Consumer
ISM Mfg at worst reading since June 2009 underscores that the slowdown ECRI predicted long ago is worse than analysts expected. More
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Sep 27 2019
Eurozone Looking Better
People are convinced that the Eurozone is going into recession, but our work reveals that’s too pessimistic because it’s too simplistic. More
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Sep 27 2019
Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to -0.2%. More
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Sep 25 2019
Japan Recession Risk
While many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s much worse for Japan. More
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Sep 24 2019
Cyclical Upturn in India
From a cyclical perspective India is looking better, with ECRI’s leading indexes showing a trough in the current slowdown. More
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Sep 24 2019
The U.S. Jobs Slowdown is Important
U.S. jobs growth, already at an 8-year low, will keep falling, undermining consumer spending. More
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Sep 23 2019
Industrial Slowdown Grips China and the U.S.
Despite the ups and downs of trade talks, the global industrial growth continues with knock-on effects for China and the U.S. More
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Sep 23 2019
The US Economy Isn't In The Clear. A Recession is Still on The Table
The stock market is once again nearing record highs amid investor hopes that a recession is off the table — at least for now. More
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Sep 20 2019
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -1.5%. More
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Sep 13 2019
An Upturn In India’s Growth Cycle Is In The Offing
The ECRI’s forward-looking leading indicators on India’s economic cycle tell us that there is a bottoming-out of growth that is in the offing. More
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Sep 13 2019
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edges up to -2.5%. More
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Sep 12 2019
The Trouble with Oil Price Predictions
The ECRI’s forward-looking leading indicators on India’s economic cycle tell us that there is a bottoming-out of growth that is in the offing. More
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Sep 06 2019
Hiring Cooled in August, The Latest in a Long Line of Data Indicating Trump’s Trade War is Starting to Bite
The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. More
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Sep 06 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls further to -2.9%. More
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Sep 05 2019
Jobs Growth Prospects Dim
Leading Employment Index growth, which nailed the current jobs slowdown, has fallen sharply. More
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Sep 01 2019
Central Bank Failures and Recession Risks
Updates to ECRI’s U.S. and China slowdown calls, and monetary policy dilemmas in the context of Grand Experiments launched post-GFC. More
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Aug 30 2019
Worsening U.S. Slowdown
Discussion about the ongoing turns in U.S. economic growth and inflation. More
Testimonial
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
"eerily accurate"
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
