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How is ECRI different from other forecasters?

Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. In contrast, most economists who rely on models based on what has happened in the recent past to predict the near future. Their approach may work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn. ECRI’s  very advanced leading indicator approach generates reliable insights that are crucial for the ongoing management of cycle risk.

This difference in ECRI’s approach is also borne out by our unrivaled real-time record.

Unlike agenda-driven “experts” on the economy, ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan. We are focused on objectively calling cycle turns using our array of leading indexes, repeatable process and long institutional memory.

How can ECRI help me manage risk?

Cyclical risk rises and falls over the course of the business cycle. We help clients clients monitor the development of these directional shifts so they can better time critical decisions – including asset allocation and business management.

See examples of client experiences.

Investment Managers:
•    Global Investment Manager
•    International Commodity Trading

Business Executives:
•    Global Semiconductor Manufacturer
•    Global Theme Parks

Government Policymakers:
•    The Federal Reserve Circa 1990s
•    The Reserve Bank of India

Can ECRI help with specific sectors of the economy?

Yes. Part of our onboarding process is reviewing the cyclical nature of client exposures, and determining how to monitor and anticipate related turning points. In some cases, where the client is a market leader in a sector, we can develop new, targeted leading indexes.

What is ECRI's track record?

Our track record in forecasting cycle turning points has been unparalleled for decades. The Economist magazine noted that: "ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions."
See our real-time track record from 2015-present.

What does ECRI do?

ECRI helps clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. We partner with them to integrate our unique cycle insights into their decision making process.

Can I learn more before engaging with ECRI?

Yes. We can arrange one-on-one meetings to explain our advisory services in detail, including questions about our research and engagement process.

Contact us for details.

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
"penetrating analysis"
- The New York Times
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.