FAQs
How is ECRI's approach different from that of other forecasters?
Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. We are not economists, and do not rely on back-fitted econometric models. While we do not make “market calls,” our exemplary real-time record of calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation has helped our clients consistently outperform their peers.
In contrast, most economists rely on models that try to predict the near future based on what has happened in the recent past. This can work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches and such models reliably fail. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn.
Furthermore, our solid grasp of where we are in any given cycle let’s us strip out the cyclical component, leaving behind what is structural. This provides us with timely insights into structural changes.
Learn more about the ECRI approach.
ECRI Services
Testimonial
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
This approach works like a charm.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.