A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

FAQs

How is ECRI's approach different from that of other forecasters?

Most economists use models that reduce a complex economy to a rigid set of largely backward-looking relationships. Simply put, they try to predict the near future based on what has happened in the recent past. This can work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches, and such models reliably fail. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn.

A century-long tradition of business cycle research gives ECRI a singular perspective on the ebb and flow of the economy, even in the face of unexpected shocks. Our approach is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore. Building on that foundation, by the late 1990s ECRI had developed a sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles that remains at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting.

Learn more about the ECRI approach.

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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Testimonial

No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.

- Fortune Magazine

This approach works like a charm.

- Forbes Magazine

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005

- The Economist

ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.

- Sydney Morning Herald

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.

- Harvard Business Review

Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.

- Alan Abelson, Barron's

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.

- Fortune 100 Company

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.

- Randall Forsyth, Barron's

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.

- ECRI Client