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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

FAQs

What is the difference between business cycles, growth rate cycles, and inflation cycles?

Business cycles consist of the alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.

Even during periods when such economies do not exhibit business cycle contractions, an economy will exhibit growth rate cycles – alternating periods of upswings and downswings in the economy’s rate of growth.

Inflation cycles consist of alternating periods of rising and falling inflation. Inflation cycle downturns have a degree of correspondence with economic slowdowns, but sometimes begin before, rather than after, the start of a slowdown.

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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Testimonial

No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
- The Economist
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client