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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

FAQs

How does ECRI compare to the Austrian School?

The roots of our research tradition start well before the origins of the Austrian school and, indeed, predate the creation of the Federal Reserve. More than a century before the Fed came into being, there were clear business cycles in the U.S. economy, which cannot therefore be explained by the Austrian theory implicating central bank policies in the generation of booms and busts. In fact, half of the U.S. recessions that occurred between the late 1700s and the early 1900s turned into depressions without any help from a central bank.

Because credit is indeed a key driver of business cycles, our analytical framework subsumes credit cycles but extends well beyond such incomplete explanations to include other critical business cycle drivers that were in evidence before the creation of the Fed and indeed in many subsequent business cycles.

We appreciate the relevance of the Austrian theory to the current business cycle in view of the Fed’s actions following the 2001 recession, as well as its latest policies. But, as mentioned, this is included in our approach, which has broad conceptual and empirical roots that yield objective insights into the economic outlook.

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Testimonial

No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
- The Economist
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client