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Top Questions

How is ECRI different from other forecasters?

Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. In contrast, most economists who rely on models based on what has happened in the recent past to predict the near future. Their approach may work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn. ECRI’s  very advanced leading indicator approach generates reliable insights that are crucial for the ongoing management of cycle risk.

This difference in ECRI’s approach is also borne out by our unrivaled real-time record.

Unlike agenda-driven “experts” on the economy, ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan. We are focused on objectively calling cycle turns using our array of leading indexes, repeatable process and long institutional memory.

How can ECRI help me manage risk?

Cyclical risk rises and falls over the course of the business cycle. We help clients clients monitor the development of these directional shifts so they can better time critical decisions – including asset allocation and business management.

See examples of client experiences.

Investment Managers:
•    Global Investment Manager
•    International Commodity Trading

Business Executives:
•    Global Semiconductor Manufacturer
•    Global Theme Parks

Government Policymakers:
•    The Federal Reserve Circa 1990s
•    The Reserve Bank of India

Can ECRI help with specific sectors of the economy?

Yes. Part of our onboarding process is reviewing the cyclical nature of client exposures, and determining how to monitor and anticipate related turning points. In some cases, where the client is a market leader in a sector, we can develop new, targeted leading indexes.

What is ECRI's track record?

Our track record in forecasting cycle turning points has been unparalleled for decades. The Economist magazine noted that: "ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions."
See our real-time track record from 2015-present.

What does ECRI do?

ECRI helps clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. We partner with them to integrate our unique cycle insights into their decision making process.

Can I learn more before engaging with ECRI?

Yes. We can arrange one-on-one meetings to explain our advisory services in detail, including questions about our research and engagement process.

Contact us for details.

Background & Methodology

How does ECRI forecast turning points in the economy?

ECRI insights about shifting cyclical risk are grounded in our array of leading indexes, repeatable process, and long institutional memory.

What is the difference between business cycles and growth rate cycles?

Business cycles consist of the alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.

Even during periods when such economies do not exhibit business cycle contractions, an economy will exhibit growth rate cycles – alternating periods of upswings and downswings in the economy’s rate of growth.

How does ECRI compare to the OECD?

Both theoretically and empirically, ECRI’s leading indexes are. Furthermore, ECRI maintains multiple specialized leading indexes for each economy, and especially for the major developing economies, including China and India, for both of which we were the first to develop leading indexes.

More importantly, ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere, and our methods aren’t taught anywhere in the world.

Our Services

How do I get more information about ECRI advisory services?

We are happy to speak with you directly about our client services. Please contact us via e-mail or phone and we’ll set up a call, video conference or in-person meeting.

What can I expect from private advisory sessions?

Following our initial onboarding process, where we establish the most productive way to dovetail ECRI's insights into our clients’ existing decision-making process, we hold regular advisory sessions via phone, video conference and in-person meetings. These meetings are tailored to each client’s specific area of interest: we discuss the nuances of our outlook alongside their own cyclical concerns.

When does ECRI release its latest outlook?

We are continually updating and releasing new information to our clients through our client website and advisory meetings.

Are ECRI principals available for speaking engagements?

ECRI principals make presentations primarily to, and on behalf of, our clients.

Contact us for more information.

Who are some of your clients?

Our ability to call the economy's turning points has made ECRI a trusted advisor of Fortune 500 companies, major asset managers and government agencies on all six continents. We help our clients manage cyclical risk, alerting them to directional shifts in the business cycle so they can better time critical decisions whether they involve asset management, hiring, production and pricing, or monetary policy.

See examples of client experiences.

Investment Managers:
Global Investment Manager
International Commodity Trading

Business Executives:
Global Semiconductor Manufacturer
Global Theme Parks

Government Policymakers:
The Federal Reserve Circa 1990s
The Reserve Bank of India

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Client
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
"penetrating analysis"
- The New York Times
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.