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Turning Points & Leading Indicators

The ECRI Difference

Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when those changes in direction will occur.

Leading Indexes can Time Turns

While we do not make “market calls,” our exemplary real-time record of calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation has helped our clients consistently outperform their peers.

We are not economists, and do not rely on back-fitted econometric models. In contrast, most economists rely on models that try to predict the near future based on what has happened in the recent past. This can work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches and such models reliably fail. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn.

Furthermore, our solid grasp of where we are in any given cycle let’s us strip out the cyclical component, leaving behind what is structural. This provides us with timely insights into structural changes.

Monitoring the Business Cycle

A century-long tradition of business cycle research gives ECRI a singular perspective on the ebb and flow of the economy, even in the face of unexpected shocks. Our approach is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns.

In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developed the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI). It is a testament to the quality of that breakthrough that, nearly half a century later, many still believe the LEI and its variants to be the best tools for cycle forecasting.

However, building on that foundation, by the late 1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles that remains at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
"penetrating analysis"
- The New York Times
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
- ECRI Client
Your work stands alone in the industry. I wholeheartedly value and endorse your service!
- ECRI Client
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
           

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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