Monitoring Business Cycles Today
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A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend.
The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators an assessment of cyclical turning point risk. But a single composite index is not enough.
- To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
- The ECRI framework covers 22 economies, incorporating indexes designed to be comparable across borders. Collectively, these add up to well over 100 proprietary indexes.
State-of-the-Art Forecasting
Our ability to predict turning points has advanced considerably since the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was created by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore and adopted by the U.S. government in the 1960s. Building on that foundation, by the mid-1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting. Today, ECRI uses this highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to monitor the complex dynamics of the global economy.
Our Track Record
Testimonial
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock - deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
"penetrating analysis"
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
