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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

Monitoring Business Cycles Today

State-of-the-Art Forecasting

Our ability to predict turning points has advanced considerably since the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was created by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore and adopted by the U.S. government in the 1960s. Building on that foundation, by the mid-1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting. Today, ECRI uses this highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to monitor the complex dynamics of the global economy.

An objective, comprehensive framework for monitoring economic cycles

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend.

The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn. But a single composite index is not enough.

  • To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

State of the Art of Major Economies

  • The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating indexes designed to be comparable across borders. Collectively, these add up to well over 100 proprietary indexes.

Objective Analysis, Durable Sequences

The durable sequences linking the indicators we monitor allow us to make sense of the consistent patterns at cyclical turning points. They let us objectively sort through data about the economy, while filtering out the “noise.” Unlike econometric models, ECRI's indexes are not based on data-fitting, and do not need to be tweaked or adjusted to account for new data or events.

The cyclical sequences within our overarching framework endure, regardless of the drama or confusion of a particular moment.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
           

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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