Monitoring Business Cycles Today
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A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend.
The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators an assessment of cyclical turning point risk. But a single composite index is not enough.
- To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
- The ECRI framework covers 22 economies, incorporating indexes designed to be comparable across borders. Collectively, these add up to well over 100 proprietary indexes.
State-of-the-Art Forecasting
Our ability to predict turning points has advanced considerably since the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was created by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore and adopted by the U.S. government in the 1960s. Building on that foundation, by the mid-1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting. Today, ECRI uses this highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to monitor the complex dynamics of the global economy.
Our Track Record
Testimonial
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
This approach works like a charm.
