International Business Cycle Dates
International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates
Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.
Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.
We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.
Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.
Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2011. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1948-2011. Applying the same methodology used to determine the official U.S. business cycle dates.
Our Track Record
Highlights of ECRI's calls.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.