International Business Cycle Dates
International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates
Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.
Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.
We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.
Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.
Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2011. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1948-2011. Applying the same methodology used to determine the official U.S. business cycle dates.
Our Track Record
Highlights of ECRI's calls.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
In March , the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.