A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

International Business Cycle Dates

International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.

Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.

Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies

Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
Business Cycle Chronologies

Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

Contact ECRI

Email

pro@businesscycle.com

Phone

New York: + 1 (212) 557-7788
London: + 44 (207) 060-1223

Contact ECRI Online

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.

- ECRI Professional Member

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011

- The New York Times

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.

- The New York Times

For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.

- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.

- Fortune Magazine

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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