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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

International Business Cycle Dates

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International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.

Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.

  • Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies

    Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

  • Business Cycle Chronologies

    Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

Our Track Record

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Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
           

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