A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

International Business Cycle Dates

International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.

Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.

Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies

Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
Business Cycle Chronologies

Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

Contact ECRI

Email

pro@businesscycle.com

Phone

New York: + 1 (212) 557-7788
London: + 44 (207) 060-1223

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Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.

- Sydney Morning Herald

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock â€“ deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.

- ECRI Professional Member

In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observationâ€¦ The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.

- Grant's Interest Rate Observer

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011

- The New York Times

Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.

- Alan Abelson, Barron's

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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