International Business Cycle Dates
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International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates
Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.
Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.
We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.
Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.
Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
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Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies
Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2011. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
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Business Cycle Chronologies
Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1948-2011. Applying the same methodology used to determine the official U.S. business cycle dates.
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ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
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