A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

International Business Cycle Dates

International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies.

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

We have been studying international economic cycles since the early 1970s.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.

Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
  • Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies

    Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 21 Countries, 1949-2015. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

  • Business Cycle Chronologies

    Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1948-2015. Applying the same methodology used to determine the official U.S. business cycle dates.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline


Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

Learn More