International Business Cycle Dates
SHARE
International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates
Business cycles consist of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.
Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 22 countries.
We began developing international indicators in the early 1970s.
Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 22 other countries.
-
Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies
Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
-
Business Cycle Chronologies
Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
Our Track Record
Testimonial
"eerily accurate"
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
