International Business Cycle Dates
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International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates
Business cycles consist of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.
Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 22 countries.
We began developing international indicators in the early 1970s.
Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 22 other countries.
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Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies
Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
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Business Cycle Chronologies
Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
Our Track Record
Testimonial
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
This approach works like a charm.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
