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International Business Cycle Dates

International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates

Business cycles consist of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.

Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 22 countries.

We began developing international indicators in the early 1970s.

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 22 other countries.

  • Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies

    Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

  • Business Cycle Chronologies

    Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.

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ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
- ECRI Client
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
           

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