ECRI Insights

Over three generations of business cycle research, we have helped to advance the understanding of business cycle dynamics, some of which we have shared publicly.

The excerpts and papers collected here reflect a sampling of important concepts pioneered by our research group.

Ideas

  • The Yo-Yo Years

    March 2012 | by ECRI

    The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

  • Mr. Greenspan's Blind Spot

    March 2011 | by ECRI

    Alan Greenspan accepts ECRI's long-held criticism that the Fed is chronically behind the curve because of its reliance on core inflation and the output gap. But he is wrong that no indicator can predict when inflation is about to take hold.

  • More Frequent Recessions

    March 2010 | by ECRI

    The convergence of lower trend growth and higher cyclical volatility will lead to more frequent recessions, keeping the jobless rate cycling around high levels and spelling the death of buy-and-hold strategies for stocks.

  • When to Put Your Money Under Your Mattress

    October 2009 | by ECRI

    Buying (selling) stocks before recessions (recoveries) based on ECRI's real-time calls would have doubled the returns from a buy-and-hold strategy, beating the S&P by more than eight percentage points a year over the past decade.

Papers

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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- The New York Times
           

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