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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI Insights

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Over three generations of business cycle research, we have helped to advance the understanding of business cycle dynamics, some of which we have shared publicly.

The excerpts and papers collected here reflect a sampling of important concepts pioneered by our research group.

Ideas

  • The Yo-Yo Years

    March 2012 | by ECRI

    The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

  • Mr. Greenspan's Blind Spot

    March 2011 | by ECRI

    Alan Greenspan accepts ECRI's long-held criticism that the Fed is chronically behind the curve because of its reliance on core inflation and the output gap. But he is wrong that no indicator can predict when inflation is about to take hold.

  • More Frequent Recessions

    March 2010 | by ECRI

    The convergence of lower trend growth and higher cyclical volatility will lead to more frequent recessions, keeping the jobless rate cycling around high levels and spelling the death of buy-and-hold strategies for stocks.

  • When to Put Your Money Under Your Mattress

    October 2009 | by ECRI

    Selling (buying) stocks before recessions (recoveries) based on ECRI's real-time calls would have doubled the returns from a buy-and-hold strategy, beating the S&P by more than eight percentage points a year over the past decade.

Papers

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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Testimonial

[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Professional Member
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist
           

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