ECRI Insights

Over three generations of business cycle research, we have helped to advance the understanding of business cycle dynamics, some of which we have shared publicly.

The excerpts and papers collected here reflect a sampling of important concepts pioneered by our research group.

Ideas

  • The Yo-Yo Years

    March 2012 | by ECRI

    The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

  • Mr. Greenspan's Blind Spot

    March 2011 | by ECRI

    Alan Greenspan accepts ECRI's long-held criticism that the Fed is chronically behind the curve because of its reliance on core inflation and the output gap. But he is wrong that no indicator can predict when inflation is about to take hold.

  • More Frequent Recessions

    March 2010 | by ECRI

    The convergence of lower trend growth and higher cyclical volatility will lead to more frequent recessions, keeping the jobless rate cycling around high levels and spelling the death of buy-and-hold strategies for stocks.

  • When to Put Your Money Under Your Mattress

    October 2009 | by ECRI

    Buying (selling) stocks before recessions (recoveries) based on ECRI's real-time calls would have doubled the returns from a buy-and-hold strategy, beating the S&P by more than eight percentage points a year over the past decade.

Papers

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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Testimonial

[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
           

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