Beating the Business Cycle
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Navigate the Road Ahead
After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.
Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. It also shows how decision makers at all levels — managers, small business owners, and individuals — profit when they are not blindsided by economic cycle turns.
Download Key Excerpts
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The Resurrection of Risk
pp. 3-16A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. Whether a mild recession or a major depression lies ahead, you can be forewarned and forearmed, protecting your interests by staying ahead of the crowd.
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Business Cycle Definition
pp. 69-72In contrast to simplistic “rules,” the classical definition of business cycles is a sophisticated description of what occurs at cyclical upturns and downturns. This knowledge will serve you well the next time confusion reigns about whether a recession has begun or if a recovery is for real.
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How the Leading Indicators Compare
pp. 82-84As a review of recent history reveals, leading indicators are not all created equal. Understanding their evolution over more than a century provides critical insights.
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Dangers of Data Fitting
pp. 90-93Many economists tend to create models or simplified representations of the economy that assume recent trends will continue into the future — a surefire recipe for missing an economic cycle turning point.
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Putting It All Together
pp. 116-124By the turn of century, our observations crystallized to form the multidimensional framework that we call the economic cycle cube. It gives us a representation of what is going on in the economy's complex dynamic system.
Beating the Business Cycle is available as a digital edition.
Purchase the e-book on Amazon.com »
ECRI History
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Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
