Beating the Business Cycle
Navigate the Road Ahead
After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.
Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. It also shows how decision makers at all levels — managers, small business owners, and individuals — profit when they are not blindsided by economic cycle turns.
Download Key Excerpts
A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. Whether a mild recession or a major depression lies ahead, you can be forewarned and forearmed, protecting your interests by staying ahead of the crowd.
In contrast to simplistic “rules,” the classical definition of business cycles is a sophisticated description of what occurs at cyclical upturns and downturns. This knowledge will serve you well the next time confusion reigns about whether a recession has begun or if a recovery is for real.
As a review of recent history reveals, leading indicators are not all created equal. Understanding their evolution over more than a century provides critical insights.
Many economists tend to create models or simplified representations of the economy that assume recent trends will continue into the future — a surefire recipe for missing an economic cycle turning point.
By the turn of century, our observations crystallized to form the multidimensional framework that we call the economic cycle cube. It gives us a representation of what is going on in the economy's complex dynamic system.
Beating the Business Cycle is available as a digital edition.
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Three generations of cycle research.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.