Beating the Business Cycle
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Navigate the Road Ahead
After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.
Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. It also shows how decision makers at all levels — managers, small business owners, and individuals — profit when they are not blindsided by economic cycle turns.
Download Key Excerpts
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The Resurrection of Risk
pp. 3-16A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. Whether a mild recession or a major depression lies ahead, you can be forewarned and forearmed, protecting your interests by staying ahead of the crowd.
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Business Cycle Definition
pp. 69-72In contrast to simplistic “rules,” the classical definition of business cycles is a sophisticated description of what occurs at cyclical upturns and downturns. This knowledge will serve you well the next time confusion reigns about whether a recession has begun or if a recovery is for real.
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How the Leading Indicators Compare
pp. 82-84As a review of recent history reveals, leading indicators are not all created equal. Understanding their evolution over more than a century provides critical insights.
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Dangers of Data Fitting
pp. 90-93Many economists tend to create models or simplified representations of the economy that assume recent trends will continue into the future — a surefire recipe for missing an economic cycle turning point.
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Putting It All Together
pp. 116-124By the turn of century, our observations crystallized to form the multidimensional framework that we call the economic cycle cube. It gives us a representation of what is going on in the economy's complex dynamic system.
Beating the Business Cycle is available as a digital edition.
Purchase the e-book on Amazon.com »
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I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
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