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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

Beating the Business Cycle

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Beating the Business Cycle

After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.

Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. It also shows how decision makers at all levels — managers, small business owners, and individuals — profit when they are not blindsided by economic cycle turns.

Download Key Excerpts

  • The Resurrection of Risk

    The Resurrection of Risk

    pp. 3-16

    A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. Whether a mild recession or a major depression lies ahead, you can be forewarned and forearmed, protecting your interests by staying ahead of the crowd.

  • Definition of The Business Cycle

    Business Cycle Definition

    pp. 69-72

    In contrast to simplistic “rules,” the classical definition of business cycles is a sophisticated description of what occurs at cyclical upturns and downturns. This knowledge will serve you well the next time confusion reigns about whether a recession has begun or if a recovery is for real.

  • How the Leading Indicators Compare

    How the Leading Indicators Compare

    pp. 82-84

    As a review of recent history reveals, leading indicators are not all created equal. Understanding their evolution over more than a century provides critical insights.

  • Dangers of Data Fitting

    Dangers of Data Fitting

    pp. 90-93

    Many economists tend to create models or simplified representations of the economy that assume recent trends will continue into the future — a surefire recipe for missing an economic cycle turning point.

  • Putting it All Together

    Putting It All Together

    pp. 116-124

    By the turn of century, our observations crystallized to form the multidimensional framework that we call the economic cycle cube. It gives us a representation of what is going on in the economy's complex dynamic system.

Beating the Business Cycle is available as a digital edition.
Purchase the e-book on Amazon.com »

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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Testimonial

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
I find that ECRI’s historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Professional Member
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
- ECRI Professional Member
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
           

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