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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

Beating the Business Cycle

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Beating the Business Cycle

After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.

Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. It also shows how decision makers at all levels — managers, small business owners, and individuals — profit when they are not blindsided by economic cycle turns.

Download Key Excerpts

  • The Resurrection of Risk

    The Resurrection of Risk

    pp. 3-16

    A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. Whether a mild recession or a major depression lies ahead, you can be forewarned and forearmed, protecting your interests by staying ahead of the crowd.

  • Definition of The Business Cycle

    Business Cycle Definition

    pp. 69-72

    In contrast to simplistic “rules,” the classical definition of business cycles is a sophisticated description of what occurs at cyclical upturns and downturns. This knowledge will serve you well the next time confusion reigns about whether a recession has begun or if a recovery is for real.

  • How the Leading Indicators Compare

    How the Leading Indicators Compare

    pp. 82-84

    As a review of recent history reveals, leading indicators are not all created equal. Understanding their evolution over more than a century provides critical insights.

  • Dangers of Data Fitting

    Dangers of Data Fitting

    pp. 90-93

    Many economists tend to create models or simplified representations of the economy that assume recent trends will continue into the future — a surefire recipe for missing an economic cycle turning point.

  • Putting it All Together

    Putting It All Together

    pp. 116-124

    By the turn of century, our observations crystallized to form the multidimensional framework that we call the economic cycle cube. It gives us a representation of what is going on in the economy's complex dynamic system.

Beating the Business Cycle is available as a digital edition.
Purchase the e-book on Amazon.com »

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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Testimonial

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
- The Economist
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
           

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