Mitchell and his colleagues establish the National Bureau of Economic Research with a primary objective of investigating business cycles.

Mitchell's definition: “Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own.”

In response to Morgenthau's request, Mitchell and Burns identify the first ever set of “leading indicators of cyclical revival”.

Moore joins Mitchell and Burns at the NBER.

Their magnum opus sets the stage for the next generation of business cycle research.

In Moore's Statistics 1 course, Greenspan and other students are exposed to a rigorous approach to business cycle research.

Moore uses post-Civil War data to build on the work of his mentors, Mitchell and Burns, to develop the first-ever predictors of both revival and recession — leading indicators as we know them today.

About leading indicators

Moore, with the help of Julius Shiskin, develops the composite index method, and the original composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators of the U.S. economy.

About composite indexes

Moore gives his original composite leading, coincident and lagging indexes to the U.S. government. The government adopts and publishes these, with the LEI (Index of Leading Economic Indicators) as its main forecasting gauge in Business Cycle Developments (BCD). Today ECRI continues this tradition of public service.

Moore takes a four-year leave from NBER but continues studying business cycles. He persuades the government to start collecting additional statistics (such as the Employment Cost Index).

Using the U.S. leading and coincident indicators as templates, Moore and Klein identify analogous cyclical patterns in multiple countries, an endeavor that continues at ECRI. This has been called “the longest running experiment in economics.” Today ECRI maintains business cycle chronologies and leading indicator systems for more than 21 countries.

About International Growth and Cycle Dates

To continue Mitchell's long-term vision, Moore founds CIBCR at Rutgers University with the help of many NBER colleagues; four years later CIBCR moves to Columbia University.

Looking at cycles in employment, inflation, and economic growth individually reveals a more sophisticated view of the economy. Moore's work in studying these cycles separately leads to today's Future Inflation Gauge (FIG), laying the foundation for today's multi-cycle approach.

Monitoring Business Cycles Today

Geoffrey H. Moore receives the American Economic Association's Distinguished Fellow Award. Moore, along with his protégés, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, creates a completely independent research group, ECRI. The new organization is joined by virtually all of the founder's CIBCR colleagues

About ECRI's services

To capture the complex dynamics of the global economy, ECRI builds on Moore's work and focuses on the interrelationships among cycles in inflation, employment, and economic growth. The research team develops long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. ECRI is also able to monitor the transmission of cycles within and among geographical regions, major sectors of each economy, and specific industries.

About the ECRI approach

In March 2000, Moore dies at the age of 86, after a 62-year career in business cycle research.

ECRI develops a long leading index for global industrial growth based on a conceptual breakthrough. With a one-year lead time, this index quickly becomes a client favorite.

With ECRI having predicted the 2001 recession, there is popular demand for a better understanding of ECRI's approach, leading to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by Achuthan and Banerji.

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After years of research, ECRI introduces the first-ever leading index for China, having already (1999) introduced the first-ever leading index for India.

In 2012 ECRI introduced leading indexes for Russia, having earlier completed the development of leading indexes for Brazil in 2011. As a result, ECRI's array of global leading indexes includes all the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Having successfully navigated the Great Recession, ECRI continues to grow at its midtown Manhattan offices, with regular coverage of 21 countries on six continents, representing 80% of world GDP.