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About ECRI

The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points

ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk.

Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. While we do not make “market calls,” our exemplary real-time record of calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation has helped our clients consistently outperform their peers.

We are not economists, and do not rely on back-fitted econometric models. In contrast, most economists rely on models that try to predict the near future based on what has happened in the recent past. This can seem to work for a while – until the critical moment when a turning point approaches and such models reliably fail. This is because extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn.

Furthermore, our solid grasp of where we are in any given cycle lets us strip out the cyclical component, leaving behind what is structural. This provides us with timely insights into structural changes.

Our track record of making turning point calls is unrivaled

Our research, spanning three generations, has uncovered reliable sequences of events that occur around turning points in economic growth, inflation, and employment. By using this knowledge, we regularly pinpoint when the cycle will turn, even when some believe “this time it's different.”

Client testimonials:

“I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensable tool.”

“I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.”

“...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.”

A Tradition of Public Service

In the 1960s, ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called “the father of leading indicators,” gave his original Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to the U.S. government. The state-of-art successor to the LEI is ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI).

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definitive international business cycle chronologies. These chronologies have always been publicly available.

View the business cycle chronologies.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

Your work stands alone in the industry. I wholeheartedly value and endorse your service!
- ECRI Client
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Client
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
- ECRI Client
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
           

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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