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Monitoring Business Cycles Today

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend.

The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators an assessment of cyclical turning point risk. But a single composite index is not enough.

  • To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

State of the Art of Major Economies

  • The ECRI framework covers 22 economies, incorporating indexes designed to be comparable across borders. Collectively, these add up to well over 100 proprietary indexes.

State-of-the-Art Forecasting

Our ability to predict turning points has advanced considerably since the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was created by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore and adopted by the U.S. government in the 1960s. Building on that foundation, by the mid-1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting. Today, ECRI uses this highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to monitor the complex dynamics of the global economy.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
"penetrating analysis"
- The New York Times
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
           

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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