Contact

Monitoring Business Cycles Today

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend.

The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators an assessment of cyclical turning point risk. But a single composite index is not enough.

  • To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

State of the Art of Major Economies

  • The ECRI framework covers 22 economies, incorporating indexes designed to be comparable across borders. Collectively, these add up to well over 100 proprietary indexes.

State-of-the-Art Forecasting

Our ability to predict turning points has advanced considerably since the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was created by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore and adopted by the U.S. government in the 1960s. Building on that foundation, by the mid-1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting. Today, ECRI uses this highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to monitor the complex dynamics of the global economy.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline

Testimonial

Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
- ECRI Client
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
- The Economist
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
           

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

View the Timeline