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Monitoring Business Cycles Today

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend.

The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators an assessment of cyclical turning point risk. But a single composite index is not enough.

  • To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

State of the Art of Major Economies

  • The ECRI framework covers 22 economies, incorporating indexes designed to be comparable across borders. Collectively, these add up to well over 100 proprietary indexes.

State-of-the-Art Forecasting

Our ability to predict turning points has advanced considerably since the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) was created by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore and adopted by the U.S. government in the 1960s. Building on that foundation, by the mid-1990s ECRI had developed a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting. Today, ECRI uses this highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to monitor the complex dynamics of the global economy.

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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Testimonial

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
- ECRI Client
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine
           

ECRI History

ECRI History

Three generations of cycle research.

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