International Business Cycle Dates
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International Business & Growth Rate Cycle Dates
Business cycles consist of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the level of economic activity experienced by market-oriented economies.
Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.
Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 22 countries.
We began developing international indicators in the early 1970s.
Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 22 other countries.
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Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies
Growth Rate Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
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Business Cycle Chronologies
Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 22 Countries, 1949-2019. Based on a methodology analogous to that used to determine ECRI's international business cycle dates.
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Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
