ECRI identifies the Japanese recovery as a critical shift in the factors underlying the long U.S. expansion, noting: “it is critical to monitor [ECRI's Japanese Long Leading Index] as well as the USFIG (ECRI's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge), which is likely to provide the earliest reliable reading of any sharp increase in inflationary pressures.”

Read June 1999 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

ECRI warns of recession ahead: “the U.S. Leading Diffusion Index (USLDI) plunged to its lowest level in the current expansion... in eight out of the ten instances since 1950 in which the USLDI dipped this low, a recession followed.”

Read September 2000 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The cyclical leading indicators monitored by ECRI are now collectively pointing to a business cycle recession in the U.S. economy.”

Read March 2001 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“[T]he drivers of the U.S. business cycle are still configured in a way that makes it difficult for Katrina or other near-term shocks to trigger a new recession.”

Read September 2005 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

ECRI calls “The End of the Housing Boom,” even as markets remain upbeat about homebuilder stocks.

“The growing weakness in the growth rates of ECRI's leading indexes is a warning that recessionary weakness could develop. One key danger is a sustained credit crunch, because the credit crisis is clearly not over... [Our] Leading Index[es are] now approaching [their] worst reading[s] since the 2001 recession... Also, the breadth of deterioration evident in the latest data on the components of ECRI's many leading indexes has rarely been seen except near the cusp of a recession.”

Read November-December 2007 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“It is a fact that a self-reinforcing downturn has already begun. If allowed to continue, it will amount to the vicious cycle known as a business cycle recession.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, January 2008, Vol. XIII, No. 1

“The U.S. economy is finally set on a recessionary course. This is because recessionary weakness long evident in ECRI's leading indexes for the financial services and construction sectors has now seeped into our leading index for non-financial services, a sector accounting for 62% of jobs. In fact, deterioration in the leading indicators of the U.S. economy has recently become very widespread. It is important to understand that this was not inevitable.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, March 2008, Vol. XIII, No. 3

“It has been a long time since the global economy was faced with such concerted contractions... In fact, this may be the most concerted global recession since the oil shocks of the mid-1970s and early 1980s. Even worse, according to the long leading indexes, there is no light yet at the end of the tunnel... In sum, we are on the cusp of the worst global recession in nearly three decades, with no end in sight.”

Read August 2008 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“[T]he recovery, when it does arrive, is likely to be relatively modest.”
– U.S. Cyclical Outlook, August 2008, Vol. XIII, No. 8

“There has hardly ever been such a swift deterioration of an already downbeat economic outlook.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, November 2008, Vol. XIII, No. 11

“[Such upticks in leading index growth] have always been followed by a growth rate cycle upturn” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, March 2009, Vol. XIV, No. 3

“[T]he timing of the USLLI upturn, along with a nascent upturn in the WLI, suggests that the current recession will end in the second half of the year, probably by this summer...

[Yet, as] A. C. Pigou [wrote] in 1920, 'The error of optimism dies in the crisis but in dying it “gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born, not an infant, but a giant.'”... Following the latest crisis, the 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why today many are skeptical that we have the first clear signs that the recession will end in the coming months.”

Read April 2009 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“We have known for several decades that 'the strength of the recovery depends on the depth of the recession' (U.S. Cyclical Outlook, Vol. VII, No. 1, January 2002). Specifically, the more negative the low point in the growth rate of the U.S. Coincident Index (USCI), the stronger the bounce in the USCI tends to be in the first year of the recovery.” – U.S. Cyclical Outlook, May 2009, Vol. XIV, No. 5

“U.S. economic growth will begin to decelerate by mid-year.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, January 2010, Vol. XV, No. 1

ECRI's U.S. “Long Leading Index... has a longer lead over the business cycle than equities, which are a short leading indicator, and in recent months its growth has been pulling back, pointing to slower growth in the economy starting ... by mid-year... [But] there's no double-dip imminent.”

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“We are on the cusp of a new global industrial slowdown.”

Read March 2010 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“[R]enewed weakness in ECRI’s Spanish leading indexes underscores the increasing vulnerability of the Spanish economy.”

Read May 2010 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“With inflation a growing concern, [Chinese] policy makers will be forced to take stronger action – even though a global slowdown is taking hold.” In any case, “[w]ith growth in ECRI's Chinese Leading Home Price Index remaining in a clear cyclical downturn, the pace of home price inflation is likely to moderate in the months ahead.”

Read June 2010 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“When there really is danger of an imminent recession, [we will signal it]. But that hasn't happened yet.”

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“[G]lobal industrial growth will [turn up]…, possibly around the end of 2010 or early 2011. [Thus,] a reacceleration in global industrial growth may well begin in a couple of quarters.” - International Cyclical Outlook, July 2010, Vol. XV, No. 7

The U.S. “is unmistakably veering away from the recession track.”

Read October 2010 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“Global industrial growth is likely to start slowing by summer.”

Read January 2011 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The recent rise in international inflation is being driven increasingly by more than food and energy. This is the message from a set of alternative future inflation gauges not only for the major Western economies, but also for India and China.

[The Chinese future inflation gauge] still suggests that Chinese inflation will stay in a cyclical upswing for the time being.”

Read February 2011 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The global recession's harshest legacy may be the staggering level of youth unemployment in most developed economies.

Yet, the real policy risk today is the potential for cyclical timing errors that could end up fostering boom-bust cycles, and therefore result in shorter expansions that doom millions of youth to a lifetime of frustration.”

Read March 2011 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“[O]ur U.S. leading indexes may be pointing to an approaching economic slowdown.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, April 2011, Vol. XVI, No. 4

“Quite simply, following a brief revival, U.S. economic growth is set to slow again... The downside risks to U.S. economic growth have risen decisively.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, May 2011, Vol. XVI, No. 5

“Chinese inflation is likely to start easing in the next few months.”

Read June 2011 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The only silver lining is that the long leading index of global industrial growth that enabled us to forecast the current global industrial slowdown far in advance, troughed in April 2011, and has now rebounded to a one-year high… [predicting] an upturn [in global industrial growth that] is at least one quarter away.” - International Cyclical Outlook, September 2011, Vol. XVI, No. 9

“The jury is in, and the verdict is recession.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, September 2011, Vol. XVI, No. 9

“The Eurozone is increasingly vulnerable to shocks, with some economies already tipping into recession. A case in point is Italy, where the pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline in the Italian Long Leading Index makes it evident that recession is imminent.” - International Cyclical Outlook, September 2011, Vol. XVI, No. 9

“[T]he current alignment of ECRI's leading indexes of economic activity points to a recession starting as early as the current quarter, but more likely sometime between the first and third quarters of 2012. But even after the U.S. economy begins to contract, it is apt to take several more months before GDP growth numbers turn negative and the broader consensus acknowledges the reality of a recession.”

Read December 2011 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“Due to falling trend growth and higher volatility, shorter business cycle expansions may become the norm in most major developed economies.

Building on our 2008 work for the U.S.,… [ECRI's] analysis reveals a fairly pervasive pattern of long-term declines in the trend growth rates of GDP for most G7 economies… with higher cycle volatility,] [t]his … virtually dictates more frequent recessions in the G7 economies.”

Read December 2011 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“This does not mean that equity prices must soon tumble. After all, the world's major central banks are flooding the financial system with liquidity, and monetary easing is often greeted with bullish moves in risk assets.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, January 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 1

“The global economy is in a deepening downturn from which the U.S. cannot easily decouple.”

Read excerpt from ECRI’s Outlook, January 2012

“[W]hen an economy shows a pattern of slower and slower growth during economic expansions, along with a spike in cycle volatility, it becomes much easier for growth to drop below zero. … [T]his combination virtually dictates more frequent recessions. … In that case, the massive monetary easing being implemented by the major central banks as bridges to periods when growth is ‘normalized’ may turn out to be bridges to nowhere. … The … Bullwhip Effect … results in relatively small fluctuations in consumer demand growth being amplified up the supply chain into bigger swings in demand as we move away from the end consumer. Thus … global supply chains makes supplier economies – and, even more so, the suppliers to suppliers – highly vulnerable to the lash of the Bullwhip. … This adds up to what we might call the ‘yo-yo years’ for growth in both the developed and developing economies.” - International Cyclical Outlook, March 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 3

February 2016 (Yes, four years later): “This week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard finally expressed his explicit agreement with the ‘yo-yo years’ thesis that ECRI laid out years ago (ICO, March 2012); namely, that the economy is ‘at a lower trend growth rate,’ implying ‘a higher probability of recession.’ Moreover, with regard to the Fed's options in the face of a sharper downturn, given the lower long-term trend, ‘monetary policy tricks are not going to do it.’ This is because ‘monetary policy is about stabilization … around a trend [which] is lower. [So] you gotta do other things to [boost] the trend.’ Obviously, this is true not only for the Fed, but also for other central banks, who have collectively added some 11 trillion dollars to their balance sheets since before the GFC.” - International Essentials, February 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 2

“The looming global industrial downturn heightens the dangers to Eurozone fiscal stability.” - International Cyclical Outlook, April 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 4

“[T]the current pattern exhibited by the growth rates of the USLHPI [U.S. Leading Home Price Index] and its components points to a cyclical upturn in home price growth. We arrive at this conclusion by examining the three P's to determine whether the upturns in the growth rates of the USLHPI and its components are as pronounced, pervasive and persistent as in past cyclical upturns in home price growth.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook, April 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 4

“[T]he issue of rising global youth unemployment that we first featured 15 months ago is destined to become a bigger problem for major economies, not only in the coming months but also in the years ahead, with profound policy implications that few policymakers have seriously considered.”
– International Cyclical Outlook, June 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 6

“The global industrial downturn is set to worsen in the near term. As yet, no light of revival is visible at the end of the tunnel.” – International Cyclical Outlook, September 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 9

“Chinese growth remains weak, and there are no clear signs yet that it will soon begin to recover. Under the circumstances, there may be a desire for further stimulus, but ECRI's leading indexes are suggesting that this will need to be limited to avoid resurgent consumer price inflation and a fresh upturn in home price inflation.” – International Cyclical Outlook, October 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 10

“U.K. economic growth is poised to stay in a cyclical upswing, despite downside risks stemming from Eurozone exposure.” – International Cyclical Outlook, November 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 11

“In the face of deteriorating growth prospects, major central banks are still pushing on a string — only harder.”
– International Cyclical Outlook, December 2012, Vol. XVII, No. 12

“As Japan exits its third recession in five years, deflationary pressures are retreating further, having begun to ebb before Abenomics appeared on the horizon.” – International Cyclical Outlook, April 2013, Vol. XVIII, No. 4

“Chinese growth prospects, which had already been fading, have waned further, with Chinese Long Leading Index growth still falling. So, looking just at China's cooling growth and inflation prospects, it might be reasonable to think that the economy is in need of some stimulus.” – International Cyclical Outlook, June 2013, Vol. XVIII, No. 6

“Prospects are brightening further in parts of Europe, including Spain, where a five-year recession is on its way out.” – International Cyclical Outlook, July 2013, Vol. XVIII, No. 7

“Last November we correctly called the U.K.'s exit from its second recession in five years, despite lingering concerns amongst the consensus of a 'triple-dip' recession. Since then, stronger upturns in the growth rates of ECRI's leading indexes and a fresh upturn in the coincident index's growth rate have vindicated that call, indicating that a cyclical expansion has taken hold.” – International Cyclical Outlook, September 2013, Vol. Volume XVIII, No. 9

“Months after exiting its sixth recession in two decades, Japan is entering a fresh downturn in growth.” – International Cyclical Outlook, October 2013, Vol. XVIII, No. 10

“Inflation is likely to keep trending downward in both the Eurozone and the U.S.” – International Cyclical Outlook, December 2013, Vol. XVIII, No. 12

“For the fifth straight year, expectations are running high that this time around the U.S. economy will take off and reach ‘escape velocity.’” – U.S. Cyclical Outlook, January 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 1

Read January 2014 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“Growth prospects for advanced economies are worsening, even as consensus expectations grow more confident.”
– International Cyclical Outlook, March 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 3

“With ECRI's leading indicators showing the Russian economy in a precarious position as early as last fall, Russia may have started sliding into recession before the Crimean crisis began.” – International Cyclical Outlook, March 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 3

“Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with most major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the Global Financial Crisis.” – International Cyclical Outlook, April 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 4

Read April 2014 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“Key cyclical drivers of gold prices are weakening, making a near-term cyclical upsurge unlikely.”
– International Cyclical Outlook, April 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 5

“[T]he long leading index growth rates for some of the most important economies – ranging from China to the U.S., Japan and Germany – are now exhibiting greater weakness. In this context, a handoff from policy stimulus to self-sustaining expansions is likely to prove troublesome, as we predicted at the beginning of this year.” – International Cyclical Outlook, April 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 7

“[O]ur array of Japanese indicators sees ‘the mounting danger of a fresh recession – Japan's seventh since 1992.’ In fact, both the JALLI and the JACI are in three P's downturns, confirming that Japan is proceeding along the recession track, uncannily close to the pattern seen in 1997.” – International Cyclical Outlook, August 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 8

Weakness in “wages undermines the relatively favorable cyclical outlook in manufacturing and nonfinancial services.” – U.S. Cyclical Outlook, September 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 9

“The downturn in U.S. growth is being driven by a manufacturing slowdown, while non-manufacturing growth holds up for the time being.” – U.S. Cyclical Outlook Essentials, November 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 11

“While the consensus remains fairly optimistic about the U.K. economy, ECRI's leading indexes are signaling a pervasive slowdown in economic growth in the months ahead.” - International Cyclical Outlook Focus, December 2014, Vol. XIX, No. 12

“Given half a chance, the Fed would like to raise rates this year – and sooner rather than later.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook Essentials, January 2015, Vol. XX, No. 1

Read January 2015 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“[T]he current cyclical outlook remains gloomy, with exports the only glimmer of hope. Therefore, recessionary conditions are likely to persist in the near future.” – International Cyclical Outlook Focus, April 2015, Vol. XX, No. 4

In the context of Grexit, “[c]oncerns about a looming economic catastrophe are increasingly being voiced by a veritable who’s who of luminaries. Indeed, growing ranks of the great and the good are worried that the global economy, like Humpty Dumpty, is about to have a great fall, never to be put together again. We understand their apprehension, given our concern since the summer of 2008 about collapsing trend growth. However, in terms of our current assessment of global recession risk, we are not ready to join in.” - International Cyclical Outlook Essentials, June 2015, Vol. XX, No. 6

“The two-speed economy – where manufacturing is in a growth rate cycle (GRC) downturn and services in a GRC upturn – that we flagged in November has come to an inauspicious end. With nonfinancial services growth in a three P's downturn and growth in the leading and coincident services indexes weakening, the service sector has entered a slowdown, joining manufacturing. This will likely result in an intensification of the ongoing U.S. GRC downturn in the coming months, as we noted recently.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook Focus, July 2015, Vol. XX, No. 7

“The Fed’s rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle. According to Fed Chairman Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony last week, ‘economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target,’ i.e., if not by September, then by December. But while the Fed clearly expects a pickup in growth, ECRI's leading indexes suggest the opposite.” - U.S. Cyclical Outlook Essentials, July 2015, Vol. XX, No. 7

Read excerpt from ECRI's July 2015 Outlook

“Three grand experiments — the Fed exiting ZIRP, Abenomics, and a smooth transition in China — are at increasing risk of failing.” - International Cyclical Outlook Essentials, October 2015, Vol. XX, No. 10

Read excerpt from ECRI's October 2015 Outlook

“With the GRC downturn set to deepen, a full-blown rate hike cycle remains improbable” – U.S. Cyclical Outlook Essentials, December 2015, Vol. XX, No. 12

“Although some economists continue to expect a pickup in U.S. growth… with USLLI growth sliding to a 23-month low, there is no end in sight for this GRC downturn. In other words, the slowdown is set to intensify for the foreseeable future, i.e., through the first half of 2016. As to whether this deepening slowdown will culminate in a recession, the jury is still out. Whereas a recession signal requires the level of the USLLI to be in a pronounced, pervasive and persistent downturn, the magnitude of its decline from its August high has so far been modest.” - U.S. Essentials, January 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 1

Read January 2016 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“An end to the economic slowdown remains elusive. Yet, underlying inflation pressures — though relatively restrained — have started perking up.” – U.S. Essentials, March 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 3

Read March 2016 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“While potentially damaging longer-run U.K. and European growth prospects, the vote for Brexit is unlikely to unleash an immediate recession.” - International Essentials, June 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 6

Read June 2016 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“In sharp contrast to the decline in longer-term inflation expectations, ‘stagflation lite’ — a cyclical upturn in inflation during a cyclical slowdown, which we had predicted earlier — is already a reality. Looking ahead, with the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) in a decisive upturn that is increasingly pronounced, pervasive and persistent, inflation is poised to mount further in the coming months.” - U.S. Essentials, July 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 7

“The U.S. economy has veered away from a recession track, and may finally be on the cusp of a growth rate cycle upturn. If so, the ‘stagflation lite’ we had flagged earlier this year should give way to an inflationary upswing in economic growth.” - U.S. Essentials, August 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 8

“ECRI's international future inflation gauges show a widespread buildup of cyclical reflationary pressures, despite sustained structural lowflation.” - U.S. Essentials, August 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 8

“A full-fledged cyclical upturn in industrial commodity prices is underway, consistent with our global reflation call. It also affirms the upturn in global industrial growth.” – International Essentials, September 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 9

“While global growth decelerates and world export volumes decline, India is bucking the trend. Moreover, Indian export growth prospects continue to improve.” – International Focus, September 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 9

“A brighter global growth outlook — driven in part by cyclical industrial growth prospects — benefits developing economies.” - International Essentials, November 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 11

Read November 2016 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“Building on the gradual improvement that has been evident in recent months, the latest forward-looking data finally provides clear evidence that a growth rate cycle upturn is now at hand.” - U.S. Essentials, December 2016, Vol. XXI, No. 12

Read December 2016 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The global industrial growth upturn we flagged last summer is in full swing, and set to continue over the next few months. That is the unequivocal message from ECRI’s short leading indicators of global industrial growth.” - International Essentials, January 2017, Vol. XXII, No. 1

Read January 2017 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The days of quantitative easing are numbered, given the most upbeat global growth outlook in almost seven years. That is the message from ECRI’s 20-Country Long Leading Index (20LLI), whose growth rate remains at an 80-month high.” – International Essentials, February 2017, Vol. XXII, No. 2

Read February 2017 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The Fed risks being blindsided by a cyclical downturn in inflation. That is the clear and present danger as monetary policymakers continue to dismiss the recent dip in inflation due to ‘one-off’ factors, while clinging to their conviction that the Phillips curve will prevail.” - U.S. Essentials, June 2017, Vol. XXII, No. 6

Read June 2017 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“A new international inflation cycle downturn is now assured.” - International Essentials, June 2017, Vol. XXII, No. 6

Read June 2017 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“Global industrial growth has rolled over and is poised to weaken in the near term.” - International Essentials, October 2017, Vol. XXII, No. 10

Read October 2017 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The point is that global growth has started to slow.” - International Essentials, February 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 2

“Today, our Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index is pointing to a deepening industrial slowdown, accompanied by intensifying disinflationary pressures in the Chinese industrial sector.” – International Essentials, March 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 3

Read March 2018 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“The global growth outlook has dimmed further, undermining hopes that the recent weakness in growth will be transitory. This is the message from ECRI’s international leading indexes, which capture cross-country cyclical contagion.” - International Essentials, May 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 5

“ECRI’s indexes reveal a growing confluence of cyclical risks for emerging market economies.” - International Focus, June 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 6

Read June 2018 ECRI Outlook excerpted text

“[W]ith (U.S. Leading Home Price Index) growth plunging to a 9¼-year low, real home price growth is set to fall further.” - U.S. Essentials, July 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 7

“Contrary to consensus expectations, there is rising risk of a downturn in inflation, according to ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge.” - U.S. Focus, August 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 8

“The global industrial slowdown we first forecast a year ago is in full swing and set to worsen. Meanwhile, with purchasing managers indexes actually lagging last November’s peak in global industrial production growth, the consensus was caught behind the curve.” - International Essentials, October 2018, Vol. XXIII, No. 10