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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • February 21, 2019
  • CNBC

Fed Pivot and ECRI Leading Indexes

ECRI's Achuthan joins CNBC's Closing Bell to discuss the Fed, ECRI’s leading indexes, and the risk of a U.S. recession.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted February 22, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted February 21, 2019

U.S. Essentials

Posted February 15, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted February 13, 2019

U.S. Focus

Posted February 08, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI February 22, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to -4.7%.   More

Fed Pivot and ECRI Leading Indexes

CNBC February 21, 2019

ECRI's Achuthan joins CNBC's Closing Bell to discuss the Fed, ECRI’s leading indexes, and the risk of a U.S. recession.   More

The Fed’s 'First, Do No Harm' Policy Is Harmful

Bloomberg February 19, 2019

Instead of pausing, the central bank may need to start cutting interest rates to avoid a recession.    More

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI February 15, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks down to -4.3%.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.1
Public update:

Feb 22
10:30am

Member update:

Feb 22
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Feb 01
9:40am

Member update:

Feb 01
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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