A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • October 5, 2015
  • ECRI

The White Queen’s Rule

Seven years after the financial crisis - no Fed rate hike seems surreal.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Economy Softening, No Recession Yet

Seeking Alpha October 12, 2015

All U.S sectors slowing, manufacturing the worst. All countries’ export growth near zero, with alarming deflation. Fed unlikely to raise rates until economy accelerates.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI October 9, 2015

U.S. WLI rises to 132.5, growth rate increases to -1.1%.   More

Three Point Summary of Today's Discussion on Bloomberg

Bloomberg October 5, 2015

Discussing the U.S. slowdown, World export price deflation and the Fed's Model.    More

The White Queen’s Rule

ECRI October 5, 2015

Seven years after the financial crisis - no Fed rate hike seems surreal.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.9
Public update:

Oct 09

Member update:

Oct 09


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Oct 02

Member update:

Oct 02

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.9
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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