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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • March 15, 2017
  • ECRI

Fed Not Crying Wolf

In early 2017 many expected the Fed to, yet again, over-promise and under-deliver on rate hikes. ECRI warned otherwise.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Posted March 20, 2017

U.S. Essentials

Posted March 17, 2017

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted March 10, 2017

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted March 08, 2017

U.S. Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 17, 2017

Disentangling Cyclical from Structural

Our cyclical vantage point helps reduce the risk that cyclical swings are mistaken as evidence of long-term structural changes (slides).   More

Full Report: International Essentials: Dec 28, 2016

U.S. WLI Ticked Up

ECRI March 17, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edged down.   More

New Cycle Dates Determined for Russia and Australia

ECRI March 16, 2017

New Russian and Australian cycle dates.   More

Fed Not Crying Wolf

ECRI March 15, 2017

In early 2017 many expected the Fed to, yet again, over-promise and under-deliver on rate hikes. ECRI warned otherwise.   More

U.S. WLI Monthly Unchanged

ECRI March 14, 2017

WLI monthly level was unchanged at 143.1, growth rate fell to 10.0%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.3
Public update:

Mar 17
10:30am

Member update:

Mar 17
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.4
Public update:

Mar 10
9:40am

Member update:

Mar 10
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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