A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 15, 2015
  • ECRI

Recoveries Remain Resilient

The big developed economies — especially in Europe — are not yet vulnerable to recessionary shocks.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edged Up

ECRI July 24, 2015

U.S. WLI edged up to 133.4, growth rate ticked down to 0.3%.   More

New Business and Growth Rate Cycle Dates Determined, Including the U.S., Japan and Germany

ECRI July 20, 2015

New cycle dates for the U.S., Japan, Germany, Brazil, Switzerland, Austria, Taiwan, New Zealand and South Africa.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slipped

ECRI July 17, 2015

U.S. WLI slipped to 132.6, growth rate decreased to 0.6%.   More

Recoveries Remain Resilient

ECRI July 15, 2015

The big developed economies — especially in Europe — are not yet vulnerable to recessionary shocks.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.0
Public update:

Jul 24

Member update:

Jul 24


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Jul 02

Member update:

Jul 02

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 2.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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