A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • April 26, 2018
  • Bloomberg

Interview: Deglobalization and the Fed

ECRI’s Achuthan on a structural retreat of globalization, trade and the Fed.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Interview: Deglobalization and the Fed

Bloomberg April 26, 2018

ECRI’s Achuthan on a structural retreat of globalization, trade and the Fed.   More

Analytical Approach and the Current Slowdown

Real Vision TV April 25, 2018

ECRI's analytical approach and how today it shows the fourth slowdown in U.S. growth since the financial crisis.   More

Are We Really “Normalizing?”

Levy Economics Institute April 20, 2018

The danger of confusing cyclical with structural: see slide deck with notes.   More

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI April 20, 2018

ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edges down in latest update.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.1
Public update:

Apr 20

Member update:

Apr 20


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.4
Public update:

Apr 06

Member update:

Apr 06

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.2
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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