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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • May 8, 2017
  • Bloomberg

Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood

Addressing the paradox of falling wage growth as the economy accelerates.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

ECRI May 19, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at 55-week low.   More

U.S. WLI Monthly Edges Down

ECRI May 17, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index monthly growth rate falls to 5.5%, a one-year low.   More

U.S. WLI Ticks Up

ECRI May 12, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth at 54-week low.   More

Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood

Bloomberg May 8, 2017

Addressing the paradox of falling wage growth as the economy accelerates.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.2
Public update:

May 19
10:30am

Member update:

May 19
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.0
Public update:

May 05
9:40am

Member update:

May 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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