A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • November 24, 2015
  • Bloomberg

Key Points from Interview on Cyclical Outlook

A full-blown rate hike cycle — beyond the effective tightening already seen — looks questionable.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

Key Points from Interview on Cyclical Outlook

Bloomberg November 24, 2015

A full-blown rate hike cycle — beyond the effective tightening already seen — looks questionable.   More

Flashback to “Simple Math: ½% + ½% = 1%”

ECRI November 20, 2015

The Fed has acknowledged what we have been saying – that simple math shows trend US GDP growth heading toward 1%.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI November 20, 2015

U.S. WLI increases to 131.0, growth rate edges up to -2.6%.   More

Multiple Jobholders Boost “Full-time” Employment

ECRI November 18, 2015

The rising ranks of multiple jobholders are driving job gains.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.8
Public update:

Nov 20

Member update:

Nov 20


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.4
Public update:

Nov 06

Member update:

Nov 06

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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