A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • October 5, 2015
  • ECRI

The White Queen’s Rule

Seven years after the financial crisis - no Fed rate hike seems surreal.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

Three Point Summary of Today's Discussion on Bloomberg

Bloomberg October 5, 2015

Discussing the U.S. slowdown, World export price deflation and the Fed's Model.    More

The White Queen’s Rule

ECRI October 5, 2015

Seven years after the financial crisis - no Fed rate hike seems surreal.   More

Eurozone Inflation Pressures Ease

ECRI October 2, 2015

As anticipated by the earlier downturn in the EZFIG, Eurozone inflation has eased lately.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI October 2, 2015

U.S. WLI decreases to 130.7, growth rate ticks up to -1.7%.    More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -1.4
Public update:

Oct 02

Member update:

Oct 02


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Oct 02

Member update:

Oct 02

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.9
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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