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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • April 17, 2015
  • ECRI

Minsky Conference Audio with Slides

The very idea that this has been a sub-par recovery is a long-standing misunderstanding.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

Minsky Conference Audio with Slides

ECRI April 17, 2015

The very idea that this has been a sub-par recovery is a long-standing misunderstanding.   More

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

ECRI April 17, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 132.5.    More

The “Subpar” Recovery: a Longstanding Misunderstanding

ECRI April 16, 2015

Most believe we’ve had a “subpar” recovery. But nothing more by way of growth is owed to us by the business cycle.   More

US Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI April 10, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 132.8, the growth rate edged up to -2.0%   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.3
Public update:

Apr 17
10:30am

Member update:

Apr 17
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -1.6
Public update:

Apr 03
9:40am

Member update:

Apr 03
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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