A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • February 23, 2015
  • ECRI

The Song Remains the Same

$11,000,000,000,000 is a big number.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged

ECRI March 6, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at -4.6%. The growth rate ticked down to -4.6% from -4.5%.   More

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rises

Bond Buyer March 6, 2015

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.0.   More

Wage Growth Falling Faster

ECRI March 6, 2015

Year-over-year nominal average earnings growth was already lackluster, despite the January boost from higher minimum wages. But, wage growth is now falling faster.   More

U.S. WLI Edges Up

ECRI February 27, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 130.6 from 130.4. The growth rate ticked down to -4.5% from -4.2%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.0
Public update:

Mar 06

Member update:

Mar 06


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.1
Public update:

Mar 06

Member update:

Mar 06

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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