A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • September 16, 2016
  • Bloomberg

Cyclical Update

Growth, inflation and policy challenges.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

U.S. WLI Decreased

ECRI September 23, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.9, while the growth rate ticked up to 8.8%.   More

Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index

Bloomberg September 19, 2016

More detail on ECRI’s growth rate cycles, and the global outlook.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased

ECRI September 16, 2016

U.S. WLI increased to 139.6, while the growth rate edged up to 8.7%.   More

Cyclical Update

Bloomberg September 16, 2016

Growth, inflation and policy challenges.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.8
Public update:

Sep 23

Member update:

Sep 23


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.4
Public update:

Sep 02

Member update:

Sep 02

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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