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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • May 14, 2015
  • ECRI

Surf's Up

Industrial commodity price inflation is in a broadbased cyclical upturn that is about much more than just oil.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. WLI Ticks Up

ECRI May 15, 2015

The level ticked up to 134.6 from 134.2. The growth rate rose to 1.2% from 0.5%.   More

Surf's Up

ECRI May 14, 2015

Industrial commodity price inflation is in a broadbased cyclical upturn that is about much more than just oil.   More

Draghi is Winning Main QE Battle

Reuters May 13, 2015

It's not just the markets that see more inflation coming. A European Commission survey concurred, while ECRI's gauge of the euro zone inflation outlook rose in March to its highest in 3 /12 years.   More

Oil Price Volatility, Recessions, U.S. Outlook

Bloomberg May 11, 2015

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call, the implications of oil price volatility, the two-speed economy in the U.S., and more.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.4
Public update:

May 15
10:30am

Member update:

May 15
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.9
Public update:

May 08
9:40am

Member update:

May 08
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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