A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 27, 2016
  • ECRI

Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore

ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI August 26, 2016

U.S. WLI ticked increased to 138.1, while the growth rate ticked down to 8.1%.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Down

ECRI August 19, 2016

U.S. WLI ticked down to 137.8, while the growth rate decreased to 8.4%.   More

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged

ECRI August 17, 2016

Year-over-year growth in the USCI, a broad measure of economic activity, remained at a 30-month low.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

ECRI August 12, 2016

U.S. WLI remains unchanged at 137.6, while the growth rate ticked up to 8.4%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Aug 26

Member update:

Aug 26


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 1.2
Public update:

Aug 05

Member update:

Aug 05

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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