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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • April 28, 2016
  • Forbes

Recession Fears Still Overblown

Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there’s a long way to go before calling a recession.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI April 29, 2016

U.S. WLI ticks up to 135.5, growth rate increases to 4.5%.   More

Recession Fears Still Overblown

Forbes April 28, 2016

Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there’s a long way to go before calling a recession.   More

U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'

Forbes April 27, 2016

Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future.   More

Stalling or Falling?

ECRI April 26, 2016

Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.3
Public update:

Apr 29
10:30am

Member update:

Apr 29
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.7
Public update:

Apr 01
9:40am

Member update:

Apr 01
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.7
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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