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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • August 3, 2018
  • ECRI

Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth

The Employment/Population ratio for those without a high school diploma has never been higher.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

ECRI August 17, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slows further to 0.3%.   More

Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth

ECRI August 3, 2018

The Employment/Population ratio for those without a high school diploma has never been higher.   More

Trump Cheers ‘Amazing’ Economic Growth as Economists Caution It Could Be a Blip

The Washington Post July 27, 2018

“The bottom line takeaway is that this growth is not sustainable and it will slow in the second half of the year,” said Lakshman Achuthan.   More

Stealth Slowdown Unfolding

CNBC July 17, 2018

The U.S. consumer is under pressure, and it’s getting worse.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.5
Public update:

Aug 17
10:30am

Member update:

Aug 17
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.4
Public update:

Aug 03
9:40am

Member update:

Aug 03
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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