A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • September 1, 2015
  • ECRI

Cheap Labor

The employment/population ratio – which is consistent with stagnant wage growth – may be overstating job market health.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

The Fed Should Boost Rates, But Not Just Yet

Barron's September 4, 2015

Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer should listen to vice chair William Dudley – along with St. Augustine.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Declines

ECRI September 4, 2015

U.S. WLI declines to 130.5, growth rate falls to -1.7%.   More

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

Bond Buyer September 4, 2015

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises to 101.9 in Aug.   More

Inflationary Pressures on the Rise in the Euro Zone

Reuters September 4, 2015

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have inched up.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -1.0
Public update:

Sep 04

Member update:

Sep 04


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.7
Public update:

Sep 04

Member update:

Sep 04

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.8
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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