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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • June 26, 2017
  • ECRI

China Trade Turmoil Masks Key U.S. Gains

The U.S. enjoys a trade surplus in services that has more than doubled since the recession, but it has been overwhelmed by a trade deficit for non-energy goods that has more than tripled.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

China Trade Turmoil Masks Key U.S. Gains

ECRI June 26, 2017

The U.S. enjoys a trade surplus in services that has more than doubled since the recession, but it has been overwhelmed by a trade deficit for non-energy goods that has more than tripled.   More

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

ECRI June 23, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to a 62-week low.   More

New Interview with Real Vision

Real Vision TV June 16, 2017

ECRI's Achuthan spoke with Real Vision TV about the 2017 cyclical outlook, and more.   More

U.S. WLI Edges Down

ECRI June 16, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to a 60-week low.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.3
Public update:

Jun 23
10:30am

Member update:

Jun 23
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -1.4
Public update:

Jun 02
9:40am

Member update:

Jun 02
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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