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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • May 18, 2016
  • New York Times

Growth Weighed Down by Inaction

“The litmus test for any policy is, what impact does it have to improve productivity or demographic growth?”

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Decreased

ECRI May 23, 2016

Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI decreased to 1.9%, a 28-month low.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI May 20, 2016

U.S. WLI slipped to 134.5, growth rate ticked down to 5.3%.   More

Growth Weighed Down by Inaction

New York Times May 18, 2016

“The litmus test for any policy is, what impact does it have to improve productivity or demographic growth?”   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI May 13, 2016

U.S. WLI ticked down to 135.0, growth rate edged up to 5.7%.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.5
Public update:

May 20
10:30am

Member update:

May 20
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.2
Public update:

May 06
9:40am

Member update:

May 06
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.7
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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