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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • January 17, 2019
  • Reuters

Interview: The Fed, Markets, Growth & Inflation

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discussed our outlook for growth and inflation along with a discussion on markets and the Fed’s December blink.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI January 18, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to -6.2%.   More

Interview: The Fed, Markets, Growth & Inflation

Reuters January 17, 2019

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discussed our outlook for growth and inflation along with a discussion on markets and the Fed’s December blink.   More

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI January 11, 2019

While ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index level rose, its smoothed growth rate fell further to -6.5%.   More

Colliding With the Economic Cycle – Again

ECRI January 4, 2019

As in 2016, the Fed’s rate hike plans have been on a collision course with the economic cycle. ECRI saw it coming.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.7
Public update:

Jan 18
10:30am

Member update:

Jan 18
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -1.0
Public update:

Jan 04
9:40am

Member update:

Jan 04
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.2
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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