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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • June 24, 2015
  • ECRI

The Wage Inflation Deception

"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact."

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI June 26, 2015

U.S. WLI ticked down to 134.0, growth rate increases to 1.2%.   More

The Wage Inflation Deception

ECRI June 24, 2015

"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact."   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI June 19, 2015

U.S. WLI ticked up to 134.3, growth rate rose to 1.0%.   More

Shifting Patterns in Recessions and Recoveries

ECRI June 17, 2015

Slides and notes from Madrid Fund Forum Conference.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.3
Public update:

Jun 26
10:30am

Member update:

Jun 26
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.3
Public update:

Jun 05
9:40am

Member update:

Jun 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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