Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • December 13, 2018
  • ECRI

Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck

Oblivious of the ongoing inflation cycle downturn, the Fed is still navigating “by the stars.”

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted December 14, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted December 12, 2018

International Focus

Posted December 07, 2018

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted December 05, 2018

U.S. Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI December 14, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to -3.9%.   More

What the Fed is Getting Wrong

CNBC December 13, 2018

The Fed and many market participants don’t really understand that inflation is cyclical.   More

Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck

ECRI December 13, 2018

Oblivious of the ongoing inflation cycle downturn, the Fed is still navigating “by the stars.”   More

Inflation is Cyclical

CNBC December 12, 2018

ECRI joins CNBC to discuss how most don’t understand that inflation is cyclical, and how that impacts the debate around Fed rate hike expectations.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.0
Public update:

Dec 14
10:30am

Member update:

Dec 14
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -1.1
Public update:

Dec 07
9:40am

Member update:

Dec 07
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

View the Latest

Upcoming Events

More Events