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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 1, 2015
  • Bloomberg

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Eurozone Inflation Pressures at Four-year High

Reuters July 2, 2015

With the EZFIG increasing further to a four-year high in May, euro zone inflation pressures continue to build.   More

Why the Recent Rise in Wage Inflation May Not be Good

ECRI July 1, 2015

In today's Bloomberg TV interview, ECRI's Achuthan discussed why growth in average hourly earnings data is not the "hopeful sign" for wage earners that it's cracked up to be.   More

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

Bloomberg July 1, 2015

How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI June 26, 2015

U.S. WLI ticked down to 134.0, growth rate increases to 1.2%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.3
Public update:

Jun 26
10:30am

Member update:

Jun 26
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.3
Public update:

Jun 05
9:40am

Member update:

Jun 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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