A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 1, 2015
  • Bloomberg

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edged Down

ECRI July 2, 2015

U.S. WLI edged down to 133.4, growth rate rose to 1.4%.   More

ECRI Inflation Gauge Slips

Bond Buyer July 2, 2015

While holding above March's 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures are still muted.   More

Eurozone Inflation Pressures at Four-year High

Reuters July 2, 2015

With the EZFIG increasing further to a four-year high in May, euro zone inflation pressures continue to build.   More

Why the Recent Rise in Wage Inflation May Not be Good

ECRI July 1, 2015

In today's Bloomberg TV interview, ECRI's Achuthan discussed why growth in average hourly earnings data is not the "hopeful sign" for wage earners that it's cracked up to be.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.6
Public update:

Jul 02

Member update:

Jul 02


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Jul 02

Member update:

Jul 02

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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