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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 20, 2016
  • ECRI

ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global

Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased

ECRI July 22, 2016

U.S. WLI increased to 138.1, while the growth rate rose to 7.5%.   More

ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global

ECRI July 20, 2016

Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI July 15, 2016

U.S. WLI edges up to 137.0, while the growth rate ticks up to 6.9%.   More

Interview: Cyclical Outlook vs. Structural Problems

Bloomberg July 13, 2016

Just because a U.S. recession isn’t right at hand, doesn’t mean it’s off the table.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 1.1
Public update:

Jul 22
10:30am

Member update:

Jul 22
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.9
Public update:

Jul 08
9:40am

Member update:

Jul 08
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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