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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 18, 2017
  • Bloomberg

All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation

Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI July 21, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to 2.6%.   More

All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation

Bloomberg July 18, 2017

Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss.   More

Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

ECRI July 14, 2017

The U.S. WLI growth rate ticked down to 2.4, a 66-week low.   More

Monthly U.S. WLI Falls

ECRI July 11, 2017

Monthly data for ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index shows its growth rate falling to 2.9%, a 15-month low.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.9
Public update:

Jul 21
10:30am

Member update:

Jul 21
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.3
Public update:

Jul 07
9:40am

Member update:

Jul 07
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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