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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • August 31, 2016
  • ECRI

Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline

As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline

ECRI August 31, 2016

As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI August 26, 2016

U.S. WLI ticked increased to 138.1, while the growth rate ticked down to 8.1%.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Down

ECRI August 19, 2016

U.S. WLI ticked down to 137.8, while the growth rate decreased to 8.4%.   More

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged

ECRI August 17, 2016

Year-over-year growth in the USCI, a broad measure of economic activity, remained at a 30-month low.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Aug 26
10:30am

Member update:

Aug 26
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 1.2
Public update:

Aug 05
9:40am

Member update:

Aug 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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