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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • December 13, 2017
  • Bloomberg

Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead

Amid an increasingly optimistic consensus about economic growth, the bond market, like ECRI's leading indexes, sees an impending slowdown.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI December 15, 2017

Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases.   More

Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead

Bloomberg December 13, 2017

Amid an increasingly optimistic consensus about economic growth, the bond market, like ECRI's leading indexes, sees an impending slowdown.   More

Jobs, Bonds and the Economy

Reuters December 8, 2017

ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters' “Trading at Noon” about the jobs report.   More

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI December 8, 2017

Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.3
Public update:

Dec 15
10:30am

Member update:

Dec 15
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.7
Public update:

Dec 08
9:40am

Member update:

Dec 08
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.5
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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