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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • February 23, 2015
  • ECRI

The Song Remains the Same

$11,000,000,000,000 is a big number.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI March 20, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 131.1. The growth rate ticked up to -3.7%.    More

U.S. Weekly Leading Rises

ECRI March 13, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.7 from 130.5. The growth rate increased to -4.0% from -4.6%.    More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged

ECRI March 6, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at -4.6%. The growth rate ticked down to -4.6% from -4.5%.   More

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rises

Bond Buyer March 6, 2015

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.0.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.5
Public update:

Mar 20
10:30am

Member update:

Mar 20
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.1
Public update:

Mar 06
9:40am

Member update:

Mar 06
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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