A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • July 27, 2016
  • ECRI

Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore

ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI July 29, 2016

U.S. WLI ticks down to 138.0, while the growth rate rises to 8.0%.    More

Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore

ECRI July 27, 2016

ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased

ECRI July 22, 2016

U.S. WLI increased to 138.1, while the growth rate rose to 7.5%.   More

ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global

ECRI July 20, 2016

Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.1
Public update:

Jul 29

Member update:

Jul 29


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.9
Public update:

Jul 08

Member update:

Jul 08

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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