A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • October 28, 2016
  • ECRI

U.S. WLI Decreased

U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.6, while the growth rate edged down to 8.0%.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Posted October 28, 2016

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted October 27, 2016

International Essentials

Posted October 21, 2016

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted October 20, 2016

U.S. Essentials

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted June 30, 2016

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.”   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jun 20, 2016

U.S. WLI Decreased

ECRI October 28, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.6, while the growth rate edged down to 8.0%.   More

U.S. WLI Monthly Increased

ECRI October 26, 2016

U.S. WLI (monthly data) increased to 137.0, growth rate rose to 8.0%.   More

Interview: Recession Risk, The Fed & Fiscal Policy

Financial Sense October 21, 2016

Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent.   More

U.S. WLI Edges Up

ECRI October 21, 2016

U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 139.6, while the growth rate ticks down to 8.8%.    More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -1.0
Public update:

Oct 28

Member update:

Oct 28


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.4
Public update:

Oct 07

Member update:

Oct 07

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.4
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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