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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • April 9, 2018
  • CNBC

The Dog that Didn’t Bark

Unemployment is flat, yet it should be falling if the economy is as strong as most assume.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI April 13, 2018

ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases in latest update.   More

The Dog that Didn’t Bark

CNBC April 9, 2018

Unemployment is flat, yet it should be falling if the economy is as strong as most assume.   More

Interview on Jobs & Global Growth

Reuters March 9, 2018

ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters about the jobs report and slowing international GDP growth.   More

Jobless Rate Consistent with Slowdown

ECRI March 9, 2018

The unemployment rate has been drifting up, conforming to the economic slowdown that ECRI flagged earlier.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Apr 13
10:30am

Member update:

Apr 13
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.4
Public update:

Apr 06
9:40am

Member update:

Apr 06
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.2
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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