A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • May 22, 2018
  • CNBC

A Stealth Slowdown

The rise in inflation and interest rates is masking an economic slowdown.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI June 15, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up in latest update.   More

A Stealth Slowdown

CNBC May 22, 2018

The rise in inflation and interest rates is masking an economic slowdown.   More

Jobs Report: Good & Bad News

Reuters May 4, 2018

Reuters talks with ECRI's Achuthan about slowing jobs growth.   More

How to Avoid Being Blindsided By the Business Cycle

Real Vision TV May 1, 2018

Highlights from RealVision discussion on the business cycle and the risk of a global recession.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.6
Public update:

Jun 15

Member update:

Jun 15


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.0
Public update:

Jun 01

Member update:

Jun 01

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 0.2
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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