A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • August 17, 2015
  • ECRI

A Shrinking Trade Pie

Following years of extraordinary policy stimulus, world trade growth has collapsed.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

ECRI August 21, 2015

U.S. WLI edges down to 131.7, growth rate decreases to -0.4%.   More

A Shrinking Trade Pie

ECRI August 17, 2015

Following years of extraordinary policy stimulus, world trade growth has collapsed.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI August 14, 2015

U.S. WLI ticks down to 132.3, growth rate virtually unchanged at 0.2%.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slipped

ECRI August 7, 2015

U.S. WLI slipped to 132.9, growth rate unchanged at 0.2%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.5
Public update:

Aug 21

Member update:

Aug 21


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.4
Public update:

Aug 07

Member update:

Aug 07

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.8
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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