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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • March 16, 2019
  • CNBC

The Canary in the Semiconductor-chip Fab

ECRI’s leading indexes, which anticipate turning points in semiconductor shipment growth, clearly predicted this collapse.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI March 22, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to -2.3%.   More

Interview: Cycling Into Slowdown

Real Vision TV March 20, 2019

Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 slowdown call, the ECRI process, ECRI insights, and updates to the outlook.    More

The Canary in the Semiconductor-chip Fab

CNBC March 16, 2019

ECRI’s leading indexes, which anticipate turning points in semiconductor shipment growth, clearly predicted this collapse.   More

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI March 15, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -2.9%.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.3
Public update:

Mar 22
10:30am

Member update:

Mar 22
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.3
Public update:

Mar 08
9:40am

Member update:

Mar 08
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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