frameworkContact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • April 23, 2015
  • ECRI

Minsky Conference Slides with Notes

A record plunge in oil price volatility played a key role in moderating economic cycle volatility in the 2011-13 period.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted May 30, 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Apr 25, 2014

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI April 24, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 133.2.   More

Minsky Conference Slides with Notes

ECRI April 23, 2015

A record plunge in oil price volatility played a key role in moderating economic cycle volatility in the 2011-13 period.   More

Minsky Conference Audio with Slides

ECRI April 17, 2015

The very idea that this has been a sub-par recovery is a long-standing misunderstanding.   More

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

ECRI April 17, 2015

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 132.5.    More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.3
Public update:

Apr 24
10:30am

Member update:

Apr 24
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -1.6
Public update:

Apr 03
9:40am

Member update:

Apr 03
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.0
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

View the Latest

Upcoming Events

More Events