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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • February 6, 2019
  • ECRI

ECRI Indexes Lead Global PMI

Because ECRI leading indexes turn before the PMIs that shape the consensus, they are key to managing cycle risk.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Posted February 15, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted February 13, 2019

U.S. Focus

Posted February 08, 2019

ECRI Weekly Update

Posted February 06, 2019

International Focus

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI February 15, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks down to -4.3%.   More

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI February 8, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to -4.0%.   More

ECRI Indexes Lead Global PMI

ECRI February 6, 2019

Because ECRI leading indexes turn before the PMIs that shape the consensus, they are key to managing cycle risk.   More

China Slowing Hits Commodity Exporters

BNN Bloomberg February 5, 2019

ECRI’s Achuthan discusses commodity price inflation and the latest Chinese industrial outlook.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.7
Public update:

Feb 15
10:30am

Member update:

Feb 15
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.8
Public update:

Feb 01
9:40am

Member update:

Feb 01
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -1.2
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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