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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • August 14, 2019
  • ECRI

Recession Risk, Rate Cuts and the Future Inflation Gauge

Recession risk is determined not by when the Fed stops rate hikes, but by when it starts a rate cut cycle.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI August 23, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to -1.3%.   More

How an Economic Downturn Could Ravage Hollywood

Variety August 20, 2019

“The yield curve is a very imperfect leading indicator of a recession, globally,” says Achuthan, calling it just a “piece of the puzzle.”   More

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI August 16, 2019

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth declines to -0.5%.   More

Recession Risk, Rate Cuts and the Future Inflation Gauge

ECRI August 14, 2019

Recession risk is determined not by when the Fed stops rate hikes, but by when it starts a rate cut cycle.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.2
Public update:

Aug 23
10:30am

Member update:

Aug 23
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 1.0
Public update:

Aug 02
9:40am

Member update:

Aug 02
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.9
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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