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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • February 9, 2016
  • ECRI

The Myth of the Resilient Consumer

The premise of a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

The Myth of the Resilient Consumer

ECRI February 9, 2016

The premise of a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false.   More

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI February 5, 2016

U.S. WLI slips to 129.6, growth rate ticks down to -2.3%.   More

U.S. Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

Bond Buyer February 5, 2016

Underlying inflation pressures, while having crept up since last spring, remain fairly subdued.   More

Eurozone Inflation Pressures Fade

Reuters February 5, 2016

With inflation well below its 2 percent target ceiling, the ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory in March, a Reuters poll found.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.6
Public update:

Feb 05
10:30am

Member update:

Feb 05
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.5
Public update:

Feb 05
9:40am

Member update:

Feb 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.9
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

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