Solutions for Business Managers
Cycle Analysis & Forecasting for Business Managers
We convey our cyclical analyses and forecasts to our business subscribers through regular written reports, including proprietary index charts and interpretation. Additional nuances about the outlook and how it may impact specific industries are discussed in private with qualified subscribers. All subscribers have access to the complete historical index database.
* Reports and index data can be delivered directly from ECRI or via the Bloomberg terminal.
| Professional A Subscription | Professional B Subscription |
|---|---|
| ECRI Reports * | ECRI Reports * |
| Index Data * | Index Data * |
| Direct access to ECRI's principals to discuss significant divergences from the investor consensus and highlight key opportunities and risks. |
Contact us about the Best Plan for You:
- E-mail: professional@businesscycle.com
- Phone: New York +1 212 557 7788, London +44 207 060 1223
Sample Reports
U.S. Cyclical Outlook
- September 2005
- September 2000
International Cyclical Outlook
- November 2005
- September 2000
U.S. Inflation Watch
- April 2006
- September 2000
ECRI Weekly Update
- July 8, 2005
- July 18, 2003
How We Help Corporate Strategists and Planners
The Challenge
Most corporate forecasting exercises have difficulty predicting the timing of cyclical turns in demand for products and services. This is because most decision-makers (and forecasting models) expect recent patterns to persist in the near future – a sure recipe for being surprised by the next turn.
The Solution
Our expertise lies in predicting when the cycle will turn. Such advance warning can be invaluable in protecting against surprise downshifts in demand, while uncovering opportunities presented by “unexpected” upturns in demand.
A major U.S. car company, for example, almost went out of business in the recessionary early 1980s. The story goes that, following this near-death experience, the head of the company told his chief economist, "there's only one thing I want from you: just let me know six months before the next downturn!"
Of course, companies are not equally sensitive to the cycle. Discretionary business services are especially sensitive, as are manufacturing firms. To view a brief presentation on the sensitivity of different industries to cycles, click here.
The ability to ride the cycle opens up a new strategic dimension, enabling firms to outmaneuver the competition. Cyclical foresight can also produce better-timed capital investments, mergers, acquisitions and divestitures. Traditionally, decision-makers have been concerned about what strategy is best. But just as critical to success is when to execute that strategy.
ECRI’s services provide early warning of turns in the cycle, not only for the overall economy, but also for broad sectors that may have a closer relationship to a company’s business. As a result, subscribers enjoy greater tactical and strategic advantages over their peers. In some instances, ECRI can develop custom-made leading indexes for a specific industry or product line.