China’s Export Outlook
The first rate cut since 2008 and further loosening of banks’ lending and deposit rates by the People’s Bank of China provide further indications that the Chinese economy may have slowed more than Chinese policymakers had bargained for when they clamped on the brakes in 2011. Part of the story is exports growth, which had long been one of the main drivers of the Chinese economy.
In coming months many will keep a close eye on this exports data to try and assess whether China can continue running its export engine as before. In this context, it is useful to monitor ECRI’s Chinese Leading Exports Index, which anticipates cyclical turning points in exports growth and is therefore likely to provide early clues to the direction of Chinese exports growth in the months ahead.