Reports & Indexes

Recession - Recovery Watch

ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to presage business cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes, and our written reports for professional members deliver in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risks in economic growth and inflation worldwide.

We publicly release the latest data on two leading indexes of growth and inflation that are presented in this basic U.S. economic dashboard.

  • The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday.
  • The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.

Cycle Dashboard

Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.

Read Mr. Greenspan's Blind Spot

WEEKLY INDEXES(GROWTH RATES,%)
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Cycles in economic activity are captured by our U.S. Weekly Coincident Index, which is a comprehensive measure of the economy's current state, tracking indicators of production, employment, income, and sales.
MONTHLY LEADING, COINCIDENT AND
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
These indexes summarize leading indicators that turn before the U.S. economy does (monthly version of WLI, top line), coincident indicators that turn in step with it (U.S. Coincident Index, middle line) and lagging indicators that turn after the economy does (U.S. Lagging Index, bottom line). The vertical shaded areas are U.S. growth rate cycle downturns. Horizontal dashes near the bottom mark off U.S. business cycle recessions.

About ECRI Reports

About ECRI Reports

Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.

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Testimonial

In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
- Alan Abelson, Barron's
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- The New York Times
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
- ECRI Professional Member