News

NEWS: New York Times

Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics

When a lackluster jobs report came in on Friday morning, some economists, investors and forecasters were hardly surprised. More

Forecasting Fog

The American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. More

An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. More

Why Are Investors Buying Bonds?

"...By this summer, industrial growth will be visibly slowing around the world, said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private forecasting group. More

Can Fed Draw Virtuous Circle?

TWO momentous events occurred last week, and what was most startling for the financial markets was that they were so utterly predictable. As if on cue, the markets rose. First, in the midterm elect More

Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs

"...During periods of American economic expansion in the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s, the number of private-sector jobs increased about 3.5 percent a year, More

A Reply to Paul Krugman

In an October 13 blog post Professor Krugman questioned ECRI's real-time More

Shallow Recessions, Shallow Recoveries

THEY don't make economic recoveries like they used to. More

Does It Even Matter if the U.S. Has a Cold?

“We’re going through the longest stretch of concerted growth in decades,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. More

Forecasters Forecast Is Dismal

The Forecast for the Forecasters Is Dismal, By Daniel Gross More

A Recession on Cats' Paws

A Recession That Arrived on Cats' Paws, by David Leonhardt More

Consumer Spending Up in July

Spending by American consumers grew last month at twice the rate it did in June. More

A Forecast for a Fork in the Road

NEARLY six years ago, when most forecasters were still whistling past the graveyard, a small outfit in New York known as the Economic Cycle Research Institute said the 1990's boom was over. More

World Isn't Flat, but Yield Curve?

In late December, interest rates on two-year Treasury notes rose higher than rates on 10-year notes. More

Backed Into a Currency Corner?

The dollar has seemed to be on a one-way trip -down - against other major currencies. More

The Phantom of the Fed

EARLY this week, the Federal Reserve Board will raise the federal funds rate, breaking the seal on the worst-kept secret since the Marc Anthony-Jennifer Lopez wedding. More