News & Events
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May 04 2012
WLI Growth Slips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked up, but its growth rate fell to zero. More
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May 04 2012
U.S. FIG Ticks Down
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April. More
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Apr 27 2012
WLI Growth Slips Again
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More
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Apr 20 2012
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Apr 20 2012
ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. More
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Apr 13 2012
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Apr 06 2012
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Apr 06 2012
Inflation Gauge Dips
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March. More
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Apr 06 2012
Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics
When a lackluster jobs report came in on Friday morning, some economists, investors and forecasters were hardly surprised. More
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Apr 06 2012
Eurozone FIG Rises
Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyclical downtrend. Euro zone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downtrend in the coming months. More
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Mar 30 2012
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Mar 23 2012
WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More
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Mar 22 2012
The Yo-Yo Years
Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More
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Mar 16 2012
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Mar 15 2012
Why Our Recession Call Stands
Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More
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Mar 09 2012
WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week. More
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Mar 09 2012
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Mar 09 2012
Euro Inflation Pressures Ease
Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading. More
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Mar 07 2012
New Growth Rate Cycle Dates
We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland. More
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Mar 02 2012
Upcoming Events
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May22
London
ECRI May 22, 2013
Testimonial
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
This approach works like a charm.
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
