News & Events
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Mar 18 2013
Stock Prices and Recessions
When people say that we cannot be in recession now because stock prices are rising, it is important to know that we have seen this movie before. More
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Mar 15 2013
ECRI WLI Growth Ticks Down
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, though the annualized growth rate faltered. More
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Mar 08 2013
Job Growth is Slowing
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how, even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low. More
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Mar 08 2013
Interview Summary
In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. More
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Mar 08 2013
Seasonal Factors at Play in Jobs Report
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. More
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Mar 08 2013
U.S. Price Pressures Pull Back
Despite a recent rise in energy prices, inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain contained. More
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Mar 08 2013
ECRI WLI Growth Eases
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week. More
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Mar 08 2013
Eurozone inflation pressures drop to 35-month low
Eurozone inflation is likely to fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in January, according to the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge. More
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Mar 08 2013
Recession in the Yo-Yo Years
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More
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Mar 07 2013
Recession Recognition
ECRI's Achuthan joins The Daily Ticker to discuss recession recognition light of his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More
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Mar 07 2013
Recession Update: Part 2 of 2
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More
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Mar 07 2013
Recession Update: Part 1 of 2
Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More
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Mar 06 2013
Interview: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years
Lakshman Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More
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Mar 01 2013
ECRI WLI Falls
A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week. More
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Feb 22 2013
ECRI WLI Slips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week. More
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Feb 15 2013
ECRI WLI Dips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week. More
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Feb 08 2013
ECRI WLI Rises
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week. More
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Feb 07 2013
New Japanese Recession Date
Today ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for Japan as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for Japan as April 2011. More
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Feb 01 2013
ECRI WLI Slips
A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week. More
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Feb 01 2013
Price Pressures Still Rising in January
Even after the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, inflation pressures picked up at the start of 2013. More
Upcoming Events
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ECRI May 22, 2013
Testimonial
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
This approach works like a charm.
