New Study of Surprise Indexes Shows Surprising Results
ECRI
December 22, 2009
(ECRI) - Financial markets pay close attention to key macroeconomic data releases for insights into the future direction of the economy. Unexpectedly high or low readings in these measures tend to elicit significant market reactions, as they are interpreted to indicate higher or lower growth and inflation. Because the so-called surprise indexes provide summary measures to gauge the degree of economic and earnings data surprise compared with consensus estimates, they are often monitored by analysts. In that context, ECRI’s new study of the usefulness of such surprise indexes reveals surprising results.
This information is excerpted from a full report issued on December 17, 2009 to Professional members. For information on how to receive ECRI's professional services click this link.
5/09: ...I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction -- even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that—lead where things were headed .
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
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