WLI Shows US Economy in Recession

Reuters
March 20, 2008

(Reuters) -

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is "unambiguously" in a recession, a research group said on Thursday, as a weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell, marking a nine-month decline.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 130.8 in the week of March 14 from 132.1 in the prior week, revised down from 132.2.

"With the WLI having dropped more than 13 points in the last nine months, it is exhibiting a pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline that is unambiguously recessionary," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The WLI fell due to unfavorable moves in most of the components including lower stock prices, higher jobless claims, higher interest rates and weaker housing, said Achuthan.

The index's annualized growth rate was unchanged at minus 10.4 percent.