US FIG Remains in Cyclical Upturn
Reuters
November 06, 2009
(Reuters) - A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures rose to a one-year high in October, pulled up by higher commodity prices, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 91.7 in October from an upwardly revised 91.0 in September, which the group originally reported at 90.6.
"While the USFIG remains in a cyclical upturn, indicating a further dissipation of any deflation danger, we are not on the verge of an upsurge in U.S. inflation," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.
The October USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, rose to 17.3 percent from an upwardly revised 12.9 percent in September.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF, Jan '05
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