U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

Reuters
July 02, 2009

(Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures rose in June, continuing to come off 51-year lows touched earlier this year but still indicating that inflation is not an issue for the economy, a research group said on Thursday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 81.9 in June from a downwardly revised 79.7 in May, which was originally reported as 79.8.

"The USFIG has now risen for three straight months, but is still not far above March's 51-year low," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

"Deflation worries should clearly have dissipated, but it is still too soon to predict a decisive upswing in U.S. inflation."

The gauge was pushed higher in June primarily due to inflationary moves in commodity prices, Achuthan said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, jumped in June to minus 18.5 percent from minus 27.1 percent in May, which was revised lower from minus 26.9 percent.