ECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge (ESFIG). The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.

The Spanish inflation rate is only a few months removed from one of its highest readings since the Global Financial Crisis, and remains an albatross for an economy entering its fifth year of recession. With a new law making it easier for companies to cut wages and the continued effects of September’s value-added tax increase keeping inflation elevated, the consumer is under major pressure, with retail sales falling 10% in December alone.

The latest update to the ESFIG clarifies the future trajectory of Spanish inflation, indicating whether inflation will remain elevated in the coming months.