About ECRI Reports
ECRI's pinpoint analysis of pivotal shifts in the business cycle allows our members a critical advantage.
Costly business and trading mistakes are made when a coming recession isn't detected, a period of slowing growth is misinterpreted as a recession, or a recovery isn't recognized.
By contrast, ECRI delivers accurate advance warning of coming economic and inflation cycle turning points for major developed and developing economies.
Members receive the comprehensive reports listed below, which offer in-depth analysis for major sectors of 21 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP - all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex dynamics of the global economy.
Unlike conventional leading indexes, ECRI's international indexes are comparable across borders and typically provide longer leads. The ICO report presents not only comprehensive analysis of our international long leading indexes and future inflation gauges, but also specialized indicators ranging from the Chinese Leading Home Price Index to the U.K. Leading Services Index.
- Offers protection from being blindsided by cyclical turns around the world.
- Highlights opportunities — ahead of the consensus — as cyclical risks shift.
- Focus sections present in-depth cyclical research on a variety of international topics.
Global, Regional & Country Coverage
- 21 countries covering 80% of world GDP, including China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
- Indexes are also aggregated globally and regionally.
- International index data starts in the 1950s.
ECRI's WLI is but one of a vast array of leading indexes to forecast turning points in the various sectors and aspects of the economy. Based on over a dozen leading indexes, the USCO report presents in-depth, nuanced analysis of U.S. economic cycle dynamics.
State-of-the-Art Forecasting Tools
ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index, which has longer leads than stock prices, provides the earliest signal of upcoming turning points in the economy. Separately, specialized leading indexes are used to forecast cycles in key sectors of the economy:
- Long Leading Index
- Weekly Leading Index
- Short Leading Index
- Leading Services Index
- Leading Financial Services Index
- Leading Non-Financial Services Index
- Leading Manufacturing Index
- Leading Construction Index
- Leading Diffusion Index
- Leading Exports Index
- Leading Imports Index
- Leading Trade Balance Index
Inflation cycles are loosely related to, but distinct from, cycles in economic growth and employment. We use specialized leading indexes to monitor this aspect of the economy:
- U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
- U.S. Leading Home Price Index
- Leading Credit Index
- JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index
Because cycles in employment can delink from the overall economy, we have long used specialized leading indexes to forecast cycles in aggregate employment:
- Leading Employment Index
- Leading Manufacturing Employment Index
- Leading Non-Manufacturing Employment Index
Present unique cyclical insights on a variety of topics ranging from markets and structural developments, to policy implications.
Each Friday morning, this report promptly informs members of shifts in ECRI's outlook, including:
- Advance updates of our Weekly Leading and Coincident Indexes
- Advance updates for all Future Inflation Gauges
- Exclusive updates to the U.S. Weekly Future Inflation Gauge
Contact us to become a member and start receiving ECRI reports, data and advisory services.
The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
Our Track Record
Highlights of ECRI's calls.