News
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May 01 2013
New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Mexico and Japan
Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Mexico and Japan. More
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May 01 2013
New Business Cycle Peaks for Italy and Japan
Today ECRI is announcing new business cycle peak dates for Italy and Japan. More
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Apr 26 2013
Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again
Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More
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Apr 05 2013
Employment Growth Hits New Low
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to a 19-month low, and household job growth has dropped to an 18-month low. More
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Mar 08 2013
Interview Summary
In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. More
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Mar 08 2013
Seasonal Factors at Play in Jobs Report
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. More
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Mar 08 2013
Recession in the Yo-Yo Years
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More
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Feb 07 2013
New Japanese Recession Date
Today ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for Japan as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for Japan as April 2011. More
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Dec 29 2012
New U.K. Business Cycle Dates
ECRI has determined that the latest business cycle peak for the United Kingdom as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for the United Kingdom as May 2011. More
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Dec 07 2012
Remembering Geoffrey H. Moore
Before there was a committee to determine US business cycle dates, Geoffrey H. Moore determined recession dates for the NBER's from 1949 to 1978. He then was the senior member of the dating committee. More
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Dec 07 2012
The Tell-Tale Chart
Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More
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Oct 05 2012
U.K. Future Inflation Gauge Subdued
While ticking up in August, the UKFIG stayed near June’s 35-month low. Thus, U.K. inflation pressures are still subdued. More
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Sep 30 2012
Updated Growth Rate Cycle Dates
We have recently updated the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Switzerland. More
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Sep 13 2012
The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?
Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More
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Sep 06 2012
New Zealand Business Cycle Trough
ECRI has established a new business cycle trough date for New Zealand. More
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Jul 30 2012
New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Russia and South Africa
Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Russia and South Africa. More
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Jul 26 2012
New Russian Leading Index
ECRI announces the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. More
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May 09 2012
Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?
Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More
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Apr 20 2012
ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. More
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Mar 22 2012
The Yo-Yo Years
Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More
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