A century-long tradition of business cycle research gives ECRI a singular perspective on the ebb and flow of the economy, even in the face of unexpected shocks. Our approach is informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles. It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns.
In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developed the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI). It is a testament to the quality of that breakthrough that, nearly half a century later, many still believe the LEI and its variants to be the best tools for cycle forecasting.
However, building on that foundation, by the late 1990s ECRI had put together a far more sophisticated framework for analyzing international economic cycles that remains at the cutting edge of business cycle research and forecasting.
The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
This approach works like a charm.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.