ECRI's Record

March 2005

ECRI Outlook

Although not imminent, a firming in economic growth is already in sight. Read March 2005 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"We are forecasting slower growth in 2005 for three reasons. First, our model for forecasting GDP tells us that the 2004 increases in both oil and fed funds will slow growth in 2005. Second, the yield curve's significant flattening suggests slower growth. And third, on balance, the economy seems to be slowing, e.g., real GDP, employment and the svc PMI."

—Major Wall Street forecasting firm, Feb. 2005

May 2004

ECRI Outlook

Broad Moderation in US Growth Likely. Read full text. Read May 2004 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"U.S.: The Economy Is Showing Real Muscle"

"Resilient consumer spending, faster inventory rebuilding, and better export growth all contributed to first-quarter growth. And that mix will provide the momentum needed to power the economy into the second half."

—BusinessWeek, May 2004

May 2004

ECRI Outlook

Global Growth to Decelerate. Read full text. Read May 2004 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"This time is different. Higher prices for oil and gas mainly reflect a strengthening U.S. and global economy."

—BusinessWeek, June 2004

August 2003

ECRI Outlook

A Japanese recovery is finally at hand. Read August 2003 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"Japanese Business Sentiment Falls Amid Recovery Doubts"

"Japanese business sentiment worsened over the past quarter, as anxiety over the war in Iraq weighed on companies already concerned about Japan's weak economy."

—The Wall Street Journal, April 2003

June 2003

ECRI Outlook

A consumer-led jobless recovery is set to persist, even as manufacturing jobs disappear. Read June 2003 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"Manufacturing Continues To Confound Economists"

"The manufacturing sector continues to confound economists, policy makers and manufacturers themselves. Recent economic reports suggest orders for factory goods are starting to pick up."

—The Wall Street Journal, May 2003

March 2001

ECRI Outlook

Recession no Longer Avoidable. Read March 2001 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"U.S.: Adjusting to Slower Growth Needn't Be Traumatic"

"Business–and the Fed–are reacting more quickly to changes"

"So far, the latest readings are encouraging, especially those from the household sector. In January, retail sales bounced back from their poor December showing, as car sales rebounded strongly. Falling mortgage rates have unleashed a barrage of refinancings that will put extra cash in people's pockets. And January job growth looked better. The ability and willingness of consumers to keep spending, even if at a slower rate, is the key to avoiding the train-wreck scenario.… (T)he Fed's growth projection implies a significant pickup in the second half."

(Any worries) are mitigated by the consumer turnaround in January. Retail sales rose a strong 0.7% from December. Excluding the rebound in car buying, sales posted a broad 0.8% gain. The numbers suggest that any inventory problem that retailers faced at the beginning of the year has been quickly pared to a much smaller problem in only one month. More important, they imply that consumers are not retrenching in a way that could push the economy into a recession.

—BusinessWeek, Feb. 2001

March 2000

ECRI Outlook

Eurozone Growth Will Ease Later This Year. Read March 2000 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"For the year as a whole, euro area GDP growth is projected at 3 1/2 percent, with all countries registering above-potential growth rates… Over the coming year, differences in growth rates are projected to decline as the recovery in Italy and Germany catches up with that in France and some of the cyclically advanced countries."

—World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 2000

September 2000

ECRI Outlook

The USFIG (Future Inflation Gauge) ... (is) suggesting a clear decline in underlying inflationary pressures. Read September 2000 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"(T)he risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future."

—Federal Open Market Committee, Nov. 15, 2000

September 2000

ECRI Outlook

Never in this expansion have the leading indicators been so close to forecasting a recession. Read September 2000 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"Economic Focus: Recession Is Distant"

Sure, economic growth is slowing, but a recession? Forget about it, according to an index assembled by Economy.com, a forecasting firm.

—The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 2000

"U.S. Economic Data Continue To Indicate a Soft Landing"

—The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 2000

"For the past record-setting 37 quarters, the tech sector has defied gravity, becoming the most powerful force in the longest and strongest economic boom in postwar history. Surely, says conventional thinking, this can't go on much longer. So does the news out of Intel, a presager of past tech stumbles, signal a widespread downturn? The short answer: no. Dozens of analysts, economists, industry CEOs, and technology buyers say a general tech-industry meltdown is highly unlikely."

—BusinessWeek, October 2000

June 1999

ECRI Outlook

Japanese recovery spells major shift in mix of factors that fostered "Goldilocks economy". Read March 2000 ECRI Outlook full text.

Consensus Outlook

"The economic picture is also brighter than many would have expected a few months ago. Of course, the U.S. economy continues to expand at a healthy, noninflationary pace. And ..., real money supply…is growing at its fastest pace since early 1987."

—BusinessWeek, May 1999