About ECRI

Overview

In market-oriented economies, cycles in economic growth, employment and inflation are inherently cyclical. Over decades of continuous research covering dozens of economies, ECRI researchers have uncovered reliable sequences of events that occur in the vicinity of turning points in these cycles. Monitoring these durable sequences affords us unique insights into the evolution of each cycle, helping us to predict cyclical turning points.

History

Geoffrey Moore AEA Citation

ECRI is an independent institute dedicated to economic cycle research in the tradition established by its founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called "the father of leading indicators." Our mission is to advance the tradition of business cycle research established at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR). When Moore passed away in 2000, his former student, Alan Greenspan, called him "a major force in economic statistics and business cycle research for more than a half-century."

Following in the footsteps of his mentors, Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns, Moore developed the first list of leading indicators of recession and recovery in 1950, the composite index method in 1958, and the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) in 1967. Today, ECRI represents the third generation of researchers carrying on this tradition of cyclical investigation. Standing on the shoulders of these giants, we have refined the scope and accuracy of cyclical forecasting tools to the point where ECRI can reliably predict the timing of cyclical turns.

ECRI Today

ECRI's staff includes many researchers who worked with Moore during his long career. Their ongoing work encompasses two attributes that seem to conflict, but are actually complementary – continuity and innovation. There is a high degree of continuity and institutional memory in our studies that have led to the creation of our broad array of indexes. There is also a high degree of innovation in the evolution of our research due to changes in the data, economic structure, and progress in the relevant sciences. Together, these attributes help preserve and advance our long tradition of business cycle research.

ECRI's funding comes primarily from professional subscribers to our forecasting services. This is somewhat unique among research institutes where it is common to find major benefactors providing the bulk of funds. ECRI's independence and objectivity, reinforced by having a diverse subscriber base, is highly valued by many.