• May 9, 2012
  • Bloomberg

Recession Update

For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points.

Reports

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted April 01, 2012

Can Chinese Industrial Growth Bounce Back?

The Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index shows whether the recent weakness in the Chinese economy is likely to worsen, or amount to little more than a hiccup in China’s relentless growth.   More

Full Report: International Cyclical Outlook: Mar 28, 2012

News

WLI Falls

Reuters May 18, 2012

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week.   More

Rising GDP Doesn't Rule Out Recession

CNN May 11, 2012

Yes, U.S. GDP is still rising, according to the latest reports. But that doesn't mean we've dodged a new recession.   More

WLI Growth Ticks Down

Reuters May 11, 2012

A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week.   More

Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles

Wall Street Journal May 9, 2012

Many think recessions are some sort of “failure,” and, if policy makers just did the “right thing,” they could stave off recession indefinitely, meaning they could repeal the business cycle.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.9
Public update:

May 18
10:30am

Member update:

May 18
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.3
Public update:

May 04
9:40am

Member update:

May 04
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index 1.6
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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